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Gov candidates hit the airwaves
Hutchison talks about health care in ad … Perry contrasts Texas and Washington … Shami’s in the arena
A very happy birthday to First Reading’s own Maureen McCann of News 8 Austin, who diligently sends me the next day’s weather every evening and gets nothing but my undying gratitude in return.
Austin weather: Expect rain throughout the day. It will be heavy in parts of Central Texas. The high today is expected to be 65. Rain is expected into the evening, with a low around 52.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading when I post it. Let me know if you want the Blackberry-friendly version. It doesn’t have the videos and usually comes out a little later.)
Thursday highlights and the day ahead
The two leading Republican candidates for governor are launching their first television ads today, although let’s remember that they’re actually not the first to go up on TV. That was the other Republican candidate, Debra Medina, who earlier went up with a Spanish-language ad.
But the spots by Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison will have much wider reach. I was somewhat surprised to see the advertising begin this early. It appears Hutchison made the first move here, and her ad comes at the end of a week in which she launched robocalls and radio ads to explain her decision to stay in the Senate and brought in her most high-profile supporter, former Vice President Dick Cheney.
Here is the Hutchison spot:
She uses the ad to talk about her decision to stay in the Senate through the primary and says, “I’m going to do everything I can to stop the government takeover of health care. And it’s why I’m staying in the Senate through the primary.”
It’s a very simple message, with Hutchison talking straight to the viewer. There is no mention of Perry and virtually no mention of state issues.
Hutchison is clearly trying to stir up fear with her talk of a “government takeover.” For another perspective on that, consider what the AARP says about the claim that there is a government takeover: “Health care reform will preserve the employer-based health care system, meaning an estimated 200 million Americans will continue to get their coverage through their employers… Every proposal that Congress is considering would allow people to choose their own doctors and hospitals.”
Then there’s the Perry spot, which has a little more of an edge to it. There is no mention of Hutchison by name, but there is a quick shot of her as the narrator says, “While Washington gives us politics, Texas delivers results.” Here it is:
The spot begins with talk of deficits and bailouts in Washington, then moves to Perry’s message about cutting spending, creating jobs and having “billions left in savings.”
Here’s the thing that’s interesting about the Perry spot: Leaving billions in savings and cutting general-revenue spending in 2009 would not have been possible without the stimulus package that came from … wait for it … Washington, and yet the whole ad is based on the idea that Washington is bad and Texas is good. Perry also cites the one month where there was modest job growth in the state, even though in most other months this year there have been much larger job losses.
As a matter of fact, I believe we should be seeing the state’s October job numbers this morning.
It’s not just the Republicans who you’ll be seeing on a television near you.
Democrat Farouk Shami, who formally announced his candidacy in Houston on Thursday, is going up with a spot as well. I couldn’t find something to link to on his site, but the on-the-ball Elise Hu at the Texas Tribune got a pretty good look at the spot when it was unveiled at his announcement. Here it is:
There has been a lot of talk about how much anti-Muslim sentiment will hurt Shami. You’d think it wouldn’t hurt him too much, since he’s not a Muslim, he’s a Quaker.
Something else we know about Shami: He isn’t unfriendly to Republicans. He has given money in recent years to the Republican National Committee, Republican U.S. Rep. Ted Poe and Ted Cruz, the Republican who was looking like the state’s next attorney general until Hutchison changed her resignation plans.
My colleague Corrie MacLaggan was at Shami’s announcement and produced a little video of her own:
Poll watch
A new poll from CNN and Opinion Research says 38 percent of Americans blame Republicans for the country’s economic problems and 27 percent blame Democrats, with 27 percent saying both parties are responsible. The trend isn’t good for Democrats. In May, 53 percent blamed Republicans and 21 percent blamed Democrats.
Countdown
13 days until the start of the filing period.
45 days until the end of the filing period.
88 days until early voting begins.
102 days until the March 2 primaries.
In the news
“With hundreds of supporters watching, businessman Farouk Shami leapt into the Democratic gubernatorial primary field Thursday with plenty of hoopla and a promise to spend millions more than his opponents will likely raise, but he will face obstacles that even money may not allow him to overcome.” Austin American-Statesman
“Rejecting a rare recommendation to commute a death sentence, Gov. Rick Perry refused Thursday to stop the execution of a man convicted of murder for his role in the 1996 shooting death of a Houston convenience store clerk.” Austin American-Statesman
“The Heritage Society of Austin, a leading proponent for rebuilding the fire-gutted Governor’s Mansion, will not support recently revealed plans for a two-story addition to the 153-year-old building.” Austin American-Statesman
“What has Rick Perry and his record-setting time in office taught me? Texas needs term limits to curb the power of the governor’s office.” Paul Burka
“A sprinter’s explosive burst or a marathoner’s long, steady stride? After nearly a year on the campaign trail, Bill White still does not know for sure what kind of Senate race he is running.” Houston Chronicle
Everything else
Spurs lost to Utah Thursday, 90-83. San Antonio’s record is now 4-6.
Kirk Bohls asks whether Colt McCoy is the greatest Longhorn QB ever.
New in theaters: The Twilight Saga: New Moon, Antichrist, The Blind Side, The Messenger, Planet 51, Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire, Until the Light Takes Us.
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Shami enters governor’s race promising a crowd and cotton candy
A Shami spectacle in Houston … The size of the Hutchison-Cheney crowd … Why Dewhurst won’t be on two ballots on the same day
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Increasing clouds with a slight risk of a shower. High 73.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading when I post it. Let me know if you want the Blackberry-friendly version. It doesn’t have the videos and usually comes out a little later.)
Wednesday highlights and the day ahead
The Democratic field for governor will formally grow again today when Farouk Shami, the head of the hair-care company that makes CHI flat irons and BioSilk shampoos, kicks off his campaign in Houston.
Fortunately I and other reporters received a press release from Shami’s campaign Wednesday making his intentions clear. It said Shami “ends all speculation and announces he is running for Texas governor as a Democrat in 2010.”
Yes, speculation about what he would do has been rampant, especially since my colleague Corrie MacLaggan began her story in the Nov. 4 Statesman, “Houston hair care executive Farouk Shami said Tuesday that he’s definitely running for governor and that he’ll put in $10 million for the Democratic primary alone.”
Here’s what MacLaggan found out Wednesday regarding today’s Shami kickoff: “Campaign spokeswoman Jessica Gutierrez said she expects 500 supporters at the event at CHI USA in Houston, not including company employees. She said state representatives and city council members will be among the attendees, but she could not immediately provide names of those officials. It will all take place under a big tent and there will be activities and cotton candy, she said. Shami has said he’ll spend $10 million of his own money in the primary alone. Earlier this week, he launched a campaign Web site, faroukforgovernor.com.”
Shami said in his release Wednesday, “I know this race will not be easy. But who would have thought only a few years ago that a young man named Barack Hussein Obama could be elected to the most powerful job on earth.”
Some of the Democratic candidates took part in a forum in Fort Worth on Wednesday and engaged in plenty of Perry-bashing. Here’s the story from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
Does anyone think the Democratic primary for governor won’t go to a runoff? Your field is now Shami, satirist Kinky Friedman, former Ambassador Tom Schieffer, East Texas rancher Hank Gilbert and school administrator Felix Alvarado.
• We’ll hit a bit of a milestone in the Republican race for governor today when U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison launches the first round of radio ads. She’ll tout herself as a conservative and point to the fact that Perry called her “a true champion for Texas.”
Where did that comment come from, by the way? It was part of a statement that a rather elated Perry put out on the June 2005 day that Hutchison announced she would not challenge him in the 2006 governor’s race but would instead run for re-election to the Senate. I remember thinking at the time that we’d never see a Perry-Hutchison battle. Shows what I know.
• As soon as reports about Hutchison’s appearance with Dick Cheney hit the wires on Tuesday evening, the Perry people started spinning that she drew a surprisingly small crowd. Having been in the room, my sense was that there were more than 100 supporters there, although it was difficult to tell where supporters ended and staff began.
So was this a small crowd, considering that it was a rare chance to hear straight from the former vice president? Remember that the event was delayed a couple of hours from its scheduled start time and that may have hurt turnout, although based on the size of the venue, I’d say this was about the crowd size that the Hutchison folks expected. I’d also say that it’s asking a lot of anybody to drive to Hobby Airport during rush hour on a Tuesday. It’s not the easiest place to get to. And it appeared the Hutchison people got just what they were looking for — heavy media coverage around the state, particularly in the Houston area, including several live shots on TV.
On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if Perry is able to draw a couple thousand people into a high school gym or some larger arena when Sarah Palin comes to campaign for him. Perry drew a crowd that was several times larger than Hutchison’s back in April when he appeared in Garland with three B-list conservative radio hosts to talk about the Obama administration, although that event did have the benefit of heavy advertising on Dallas-area radio.
As posted by Houston television station KHOU, here is the full footage of Cheney’s remarks:
• The Statesman’s Ken Herman learned something from the secretary of state’s office this week that neither of us realized: A candidate cannot be on the November ballot for a statewide office and a special-election ballot for the U.S. Senate on the same day. So, for example, if there is a special election for the Senate on the regular election day in November, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst could not be on the ballot for re-election while also running in that special election. Of course, if by that time he had already been appointed senator by Gov. Rick Perry, we assume the Republican Party would have replaced him on the ballot for lieutenant governor.
• The Washington Post has done something cool here. Since the new Sarah Palin book does not have an index, the Post allows you to search for particular people in the book to find what Palin has written about them and how they respond.
Poll watch
Interesting stuff from CNN/Opinion Research: “The poll indicates that a slight majority, 51 percent, of Republicans would prefer to see the GOP in their area nominate candidates who agree with them on all the major the issues even if they have a poor chance of beating the Democratic candidate. Forty-three percent of Republicans say they would rather have candidates with whom they don’t agree on all the important issues but who can beat the Democrats.
“Democrats polled seemed to place a slightly higher priority on electoral victory: 58 percent say that they would like their party to nominate candidates who can beat Republicans, even if they don’t agree with those candidates on all the issues. Fewer than 4 in 10 Democrats say they would rather see their party nominate candidates who agree with them on all major issues, but have a poor chance of beating the Republican candidate.”
Good stuff. Click on the link for some possible explanations.
Stat of the day
From the Houston Chronicle: “In the annual ‘America’s Health Rankings’ report released Tuesday, Texas’ rate of severely overweight residents continued its unabated 20-year upward trend, inching up to 28.9 percent from 28.6 percent last year. Obesity in Texas has more than doubled since 1990, when the Texas rate stood at 12.3 percent. The good news — at least in relative terms — is that other states are packing on the pounds at an even-faster clip. Texas dropped from being the 12th-fattest state in the union last year to 14th this year — with Missouri and Michigan getting fatter.”
Countdown
14 days until the start of the filing period.
46 days until the end of the filing period.
89 days until early voting begins.
103 days until the March 2 primaries.
In the news
“The Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles, in a highly unusual vote, recommended that the governor commute the sentence of a man set to be executed today for his part in the fatal shooting of a Houston convenience store clerk.” Assocated Press
“Frustration over the dearth of Latinos in Texas’ proposed social studies curriculum standards bubbled over at the State Board of Education on Wednesday.” Austin American-Statesman
“The state environmental office Wednesday denied a request to repeal a ban on the discharge of treated wastewater into the Highland Lakes, which serve as the prime recreation and water supply reservoirs in Central Texas.” Austin American-Statesman
“The 2010 Texas governor’s race is shaping up nicely, but big twists could still happen.” W. Gardner Selby
“The low-road way to begin telling you about the Dick Cheney-Kay Bailey Hutchison event would involve a cheap metaphor linking Cheney’s comebacks from life-threatening health conditions and Hutchison’s hope that her gubernatorial campaign can do the same thing.” Ken Herman
“As the most powerful jurist in Galveston, Judge Samuel Kent intimidated everyone: the lawyers who argued cases before him, the defendants and plaintiffs who appeared in his courtroom—and the female courthouse employees he groped, kissed, and forced himself on when no one was looking. Imperious, charismatic, and seemingly above the law, he almost got away with it. Until one woman decided to fight back.” Texas Monthly
“The state, despite efforts to tighten background checks, still doesn’t know for sure whether Child Protective Services employees are law-abiding and nonviolent.” Dallas Morning News
“Longtime anti-gay activist Dave Wilson, who once led a successful effort to amend the city charter to deny benefits to the partners of gay and lesbian city employees, said he has sent out 35,000 fliers opposing the mayoral candidacy of Annise Parker in part because of her sexual orientation.” Houston Chronicle
“A congressional investigation into the Fort Hood massacre is targeting federal authorities’ failure to ‘connect the dots’ and soldiers’ failure to alert superiors about the deepening Islamic radicalization of suspect Nidal Malik Hasan, leaders of the probe said Wednesday.” Houston Chronicle
“Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid presented an $848 billion health-care overhaul package on Wednesday that would extend coverage to 31 million Americans and reform insurance practices while adding an array of tax increases, including a rise in payroll taxes for high earners.” Washington Post
Everything else
Rockets beat Minnesota 97-84 to improve to 7-5 on the season.
Mavs beat the Spurs in overtime, 99-94. Mavs are now 9-3, Spurs are 4-5.
UT men’s basketball team beat Western Carolina, 73-41.
Your Major League Baseball managers of the year: Angels’ Mike Sciosia and Rockies’ Jim Tracy.
The Sarah Palin show gave Oprah Winfrey her highest ratings in two years.
Meg Ryan turns 48 today.
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Hutchison, Cheney and Toby Keith
Fun facts about the Cheney event … A brewing debate about transportation … Tributes paid to a legend
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Mainly sunny with seasonable temperatures. High of 72.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading when I post it. Let me know if you want the Blackberry-friendly version. It doesn’t have the videos, but it pretty much has everything else.)
Tuesday highlights
“Now this nation that I love is fallin’ under attack.
“A mighty sucker-punch came flying in from somewhere in the back.
“Soon as we could see clearly through our big black eye,
“Man, we lit up your world like the fourth of July.”
And so the words of “Courtesy of the Red, White and Blue,” Toby Keith’s 2002 anti-al-Qaeda anthem blared through a historic terminal at Houston’s Hobby Airport on Tuesday. And soon thereafter, in walked former Vice President Dick Cheney, the man who helped turn the public sentiment expressed in Keith’s song into support for the invasion of Iraq, trying to build public sentiment among Republicans for the gubernatorial candidacy of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
Here is my story from this morning’s paper about the Cheney-Hutchison events. And here are some general observations from a very long day:
• Houston radio host Edd Hendee warmed up the crowd, and he’s still angry about the margiins tax that Perry pushed in 2006 to cover part of the cost of property tax cuts. Before the event started, the DJ played, among others, the Toby Keith song and “Right Now” by Van Halen. Ken Herman tells me “Right Now” is very popular at political events.
• Cheney spoke for about five minutes and Hutchison for about 10. The only other person on stage was Ray Hutchison, the senator’s husband. “Mercy,” Cheney said as he took the stage to a very warm reception, a crowd of about 150 instructed not to wave their signs too high so that they wouldn’t obstruct the view of the half-dozen television cameras behind them. He made only a couple of passing references to Perry, never mentioning him by name. The closest thing he said to a direct hit was this: “Texas needs a true conservative champion in the governor’s office. We westerners know the difference between a real talker and the real deal. And when it comes to being conservative, Kay Bailey Hutchison is the real deal.”
• Hutchison and Cheney worked the short rope line, such as it was, after their brief speeches. There weren’t supposed to be any questions from the press, but Herman got one in that you’ll have to watch in the video below.
• This was perhaps the most interesting thing that Hutchison said: “Don’t talk to me about more dollars for transportation when we aren’t managing the dollars we have yet. That is the first thing that we must do for Texas.”
The Hutchison campaign is trying to draw attention to this comment from Perry in Dallas on Monday to argue that he supports a gas-tax increase, as reported by Gromer Jeffers Jr. of the Dallas Morning News: “One of the problems is that we do not have the dollars that we need to build all the transportation infrastructure needs that we have. So hopefully when we come back in 2011, both the citizens and their elected officials will come to a stronger realization that we’re going to have to expand our ability to raise some dollars to build the roads so that you don’t have the strangulation in places along the 1-35 corridor.”
Perry’s campaign says he does not support increasing the gas tax. He has previously said he could support indexing the gas tax to inflation, which my colleague Ben Wear has noted could add less than a penny per gallon to the cost of gas in any given year.
Hutchison hasn’t said how she thinks the state should produce more money for transportation, other than to better manage the money that’s already there. But is that a sufficient solution?
Consider this statement in May from Republican Sen. John Carona, chairman of the Senate Transportation and Homeland Security Committee: “We will have no money to build new roads in less than four years.”
And the 2030 Committee, which consists of business and transportation leaders, held town hall meetings around the state last year and, working with some of the state’s top universities, reported that the state’s transportation system is facing a severe crisis and needs $313 billion over the next 20 years.
There will be plenty of time to hash all that out. So let’s go now to Ken Herman, who wisely established himself at the front of the crowd Tuesday so he could watch the former vice president’s every move:
One other very important item to hit today:
• Longtime Capitol photographer Harry Cabluck has taken a severance package with the Associated Press. Politicians and fellow journalists love Harry, the most earnest member of the Capitol press corps. Almost every day during the session, Harry would ask me what I was working on and try to find photos he’d shot that I could use with my story. Elise Hu has compiled Harry stories from a number of us in the press corps, as well as political professionals. And as a tribute to just how important a part of the Capitol community Harry is, Gov. Rick Perry and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst quickly answered Hu’s call with some kind words about Harry.
Poll watch
Washington Post/ABC News: Most Americans say they think President Obama will come up with a successful strategy for Afghanistan, but few are “very confident” that he will do so.
Countdown
15 days until the start of the filing period.
47 days until the end of the filing period.
90 days until early voting begins.
104 days until the March 2 primaries.
In the news
“The sting of the criticism has yet to subside for two State Board of Education members who say they were unfairly slapped by media reports in October that they received gifts from a firm vying for Permanent School Fund work.” Austin American-Statesman
“Residents at FEMA trailer sites in Galveston and High Island say caseworkers are pressuring them — sometimes aggressively — to move out of the trailers and into apartments even though the temporary housing program doesn’t end until March 12.” Houston Chronicle
“The Texas Lottery Commission took a step Tuesday toward expanding state gambling options to include Powerball, with a chance for the first ticket to be sold here Jan. 31.” Houston Chronicle
“At least seven judges who preside over criminal cases have hired the wife of Dallas County District Attorney Craig Watkins as a political consultant for their 2010 re-election campaigns.” Dallas Morning News
“The design of the George W. Bush Presidential Center at SMU, which will be formally unveiled today, is a showcase for exhibits, not a monument to the 43rd president, former first lady Laura Bush said this week.” Dallas Morning News
“Andre Osborne is a Jamaican immigrant who has bipolar disorder. He was detained in New York in 2008 over a 15-year-old drug charge, and taken to the Willacy Immigration Detention Center in Texas. In detention, doctors gave Osborne a cocktail of new drugs and dramatically increased his dosage. He was so over-medicated that he rolled off of the top of a bunk bed and badly injured his face and eyes. Though he was taken to and from the hospital by ambulance, and received multiple stitches in his face, Osborne remained unconscious through the entire 19-hour episode.” Texas Tribune
Everything else
Suns beat the Rockets, 111-105. Rockets are now 6-5.
The Royals’ Zack Greinke won the American League Cy Young award.
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Hutchison gets boost from Cheney today, but will she be there?
Senator’s schedule uncertain as Cheney visit nears … El Arroyo weighs in on the governor’s race … Shami doesn’t try to hide his wealth
Austin weather: Sunny with a high near 71 and a clear overnight with a low dipping down to 36.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading when I post it. Let me know if you want the Blackberry-friendly version. It doesn’t have the videos, but it pretty much has everything else.)
Monday highlights and the day ahead
Today could be one of the most critical moments so far in the 2010 campaign for U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who will campaign with former Vice President Dick Cheney in Houston. They will hold a rally at Hobby Airport, then a private fundraiser at a home in River Oaks. Tickets for the fundraiser are rather affordable for these things and considering the names involved — they top out at $5,000. (Thanks to my colleague Gardner Selby for chasing all that down).
As of late Monday night, there remained some question about whether Hutchison would be able to attend. Hutchison spokesman Joe Pounder told me shortly before 10 p.m., “We are still monitoring the vote schedule as Kay Bailey Hutchison is working critical legislation that will benefit Texas’ military bases and communities.”
• Speaking of Hutchison, the folks at El Arroyo on West 5th Street registered their thoughts on Hutchison’s non-resignation decision Monday on their famous sign. It read, “HEY KAY BAILEY, WE’RE GLAD YOU HAVE A BACKUP PLAN.”
And they say real people aren’t paying attention to the race yet?
• One quick note on Hutchison’s resignation from the Senate. I wrote in this space yesterday that many expect a November election to fill her seat, and that’s true. Another possibility, if she resigns within a few weeks of the March primary, is a special election in May. But remember that the March primary could go to an April runoff, and if she waits until after that runoff to resign, we’re looking past May for the special election.
• Gov. Rick Perry is hosting a meeting of the Republican Governors’ Association in Austin this week.
• Perry suggested in Dallas on Monday something that seems rather obvious — the state is going to need to find more money for roads. But today the Hutchison campaign will put out this video highlighting his comments:
Gromer Jeffers Jr. of the Dallas Morning News was at Perry’s event yesterday and puts all of this into context, including a comment from the Perry campaign that he does not want to raise taxes to pay for roads.
• Texas Monthly’s Paul Burka wrote on his blog yesterday afternoon about the Hutchison campaign’s criticisms of Perry’s education record. But Burka argued that Hutchison has not given voters any sort of explanation of what she would do better. His post concludes, “Voters have no more clue what the top priorities of a Hutchison governorship might be, or how she might carry them out, than they did when she first announced that she was running a year ago. She can’t win just by saying that Perry is no damned good. She has got to make the case for the voters to fire him and replace him with her. What is that case and will we ever see it?”
During my interview with Hutchison moments after she spoke to the Texas Federation of Republican Women, I asked her a question along these lines. Specifically, I asked why voters should make a change when the Texas economy is, according to many indicators, doing better than much of the rest of the country.
Her response in full: “Today we are better than other states, but that doesn’t mean that we’re where we ought to be, and it certainly isn’t planning for the next 20 years. We have the highest property taxes in America. We have an education system that has the highest dropout rate in America. How could he think that everything is great and we shouldn’t make any changes with that kind of statistic alone? And so I’m going to tackle those problems. And I’m going to offer leadership that says, ‘I want Texas to be the best for our children, not just for us.’”
• The Associated Republicans of Texas is gearing up to help the GOP win more House seats in 2010, and on Monday it announced several big names joining its board of directors. Interesting that there are Perry folks and Hutchison folks on the board. Board members include longtime GOP donors such as John Nau, Harlan Crow, Bob Rowling, Tom Hicks, and some younger Republican players such as George P. Bush and Dee Kelly Jr.
• Farouk Shami update: A press release announcing his upcoming announcement of his gubernatorial campaign, which he already announced to the Statesman’s Corrie MacLaggan, has this headline: “Houston’s billion dollar businessman, Farouk Shami, announces he is running for Texas governor.”
Usually mega-rich politicians try to downplay their personal wealth, maybe saying something like, “I’ve been fortunate to have success in business so I can provide for my family.” But this guy just puts it out there. Of course, usually politicians don’t ask reporters how they get such straight hair, but Shami’s a little different.
Poll watch
It sort of got washed away in the news of the day, but remember that Rasmussen poll that was put out Friday? It showed Perry leading Hutchison, 46 percent to 35 percent, among voters who say they plan to vote in the March Republican primary.
Let’s look inside the numbers for a little more info here:
Among those who identify themselves as Republicans, Perry leads 54 percent to 32 percent. And among those who say they do not consider themselves Republicans but do plan to vote in the primary, Hutchison leads 40 percent to 32 percent. The crosstabs show that no respondent described himself as a Democrat, so the non-Republicans must consider themselves independents or Libertarians.
There isn’t much of a gender gap. Perry leads among men, 47 percent to 36 percent, and among women by a margin of 44 percent to 34 percent. Twelve percent of male and 17 percent of female respondents were undecided.
Perry leads in every age bracket, with his widest margin among voters in their 30s.
Countdown
16 days until the start of the filing period.
48 days until the end of the filing period.
91 days until early voting begins.
105 days until the March 2 primaries.
In the news
“The ‘conceptual master plans’ released last month for redevelopment of the University of Texas-owned Brackenridge tract go far beyond the broad vision that was outlined at a June meeting of the UT System Board of Regents. The newer, printed version contains hundreds of charts, maps and drawings detailing what to do with the 350 acres in West Austin — essentially, a blueprint for a dense residential and commercial district whose leases could earn substantial income for scholarships, teaching and research.” Austin American-Statesman
“State Farm Insurance must repay its customers $310 million for charging them too much for homeowners coverage dating back to 2003, the state insurance commissioner ruled Monday. The ruling by Insurance Commissioner Mike Geeslin, the latest in a years-long case, is for far less than the $1 billion that consumer advocates recommended, and one called it a ‘joke.’ But it’s in line with what Geeslin’s staff suggested.” Dallas Morning News
“The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development rejected the state’s plan to allocate the second round of $1.7 billion in federal disaster recovery funding, sending Texas officials back to the drawing board.” Galveston County Daily News
“Gov. Rick Perry on Monday defended efforts he once made to have girls vaccinated against the HPV virus that can lead to cervical cancer.” Dallas Morning News
Everything else
Mavs beat the Bucks in overtime, 115-113. Mavs’ record is now 8-3.
Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams was hit with a $250,000 fine for making a couple of one-finger gestures to Buffalo fans on Sunday.
Remember the show “Remote Control” from MTV in the 80s? Host Ken Ober has passed away.
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The Hutchison aftershocks
Senator’s decision affects a lot of other folks … Key House member won’t run again … Is Perry anti-American?
Austin weather: There’s a cold front out there. High of 63.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading when I post it. Let me know if you want the Blackberry-friendly version. It doesn’t have the videos, but it pretty much has everything else.)
Weekend highlights and the day ahead
U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s weekend announcement that she will stay in the Senate as she runs against Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary has all sorts of effects on others. I’ll spell all that out in a second, but first, a few things I picked up from talking to various operatives over the weekend.
One is that folks weren’t that surprised that she changed her mind on resigning. The other is that, while Hutchison and her staff say that she will definitely resign in 2010 after the primary, regardless of whether she beats Perry, there are plenty of folks who don’t believe she’ll leave the Senate if she loses to Perry.
It’s too early to know when the special election will be if she does resign, but the smart money at this point seems to be on November. So you would have a special election on the same day as all the other offices, but not on the same ballot. Which means that anyone who votes a straight Republican or Democratic ticket will have to remember that the Senate race won’t be affected by that vote, and they’ll have to move on to the next ballot.
As for what happens in the shorter term, this thing has reverberations for a number of Republicans and Democrats on the statewide stage. Let’s take a look at how some of them are affected:
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst: Remember that great line from the 2009 Legislature about how Dewhurst was engaged, just not with the session? Well, after seven years as lieutenant governor, Dewhurst is facing five more. He’s been running for re-election for months but he has been known to be very interested in the U.S. Senate seat. There is still a path to the Senate for Dewhurst next year, provided that he follows through with his plans to run for re-election as lieutenant governor. If Hutchison resigns, Perry can appoint Dewhurst. Then, assuming that Dewhurst had won the March primary for lieutenant governor, the State Republican Executive Committee would choose the GOP nominee for lieutenant governor. If Perry is worried about how that would look, or if he simply decides for another reason that he doesn’t want to appoint Dewhurst, then Dewhurst could not be replaced on the ballot. He could still run in the special election, but if that special election is on the same day as the general election, how do you run for two offices at once? What works in Dewhurst’s advantage is his considerable wealth — if Perry appoints him, he could run against well-financed Democrats without drawing too much national money away from other races. One other possible scenario: Dewhurst serves one more term as lieutenant governor, hopes that Perry beats Hutchison and then he’s well-positioned to run in 2014 if Perry decides he’s had enough (or if a Democrat defeats Perry in 2010).
Attorney General Greg Abbott: The most likely scenario for Abbott is that, come January 2011, he’s starting his third term as attorney general. Perhaps his only hope of becoming lieutenant governor is if Dewhurst is appointed or elected to the U.S. Senate and then the SREC nominates Abbott to succeed him. Similar to Dewhurst, he could just serve another term and then run for lieutenant governor or governor in four years.
State Sen. Florence Shapiro: Shapiro has been seeking the U.S. Senate seat and now must decide whether to follow through with her plans to run for re-election to the state Senate. If she opts not to seek re-election, a prized seat will be up for grabs for the first time in almost 20 years.
Michael Williams and Roger Williams Each can continue to seek the U.S. Senate seat knowing that it will at some point come open, and neither has to run for anything else next year. So each offers Perry the opportunity to make an appointment without disrupting the rest of the statewide GOP ballot. And each can lay claim to some advantage: Roger Williams has more cash on hand than any other Republican, while Michael Williams has been a very popular figure among the Republican base for years.
Ted Cruz The former solicitor general had emerged as the leading candidate to succeed Abbott as attorney general. As stated above, there could still be an opening in the attorney general’s office next year, but it’s by no means certain. Good thing Cruz is a young man, because he may have to wait another four years.
Texas Democrats: Democrats have said for months that they wanted to see how things would play out on the Republican side before they started announcing for statewide offices (other than governor). With the filing period starting in a couple of weeks, it’s time for any Democratic candidates for statewide office to kick things into gear. Does the party field an established candidate for lieutenant governor? For comptroller? Does anyone other than Barbara Ann Radnofsky run for attorney general? As for the governor’s race, Bill White and John Sharp still say they’re not going to switch over and run.
A few other points to hit quickly:
• After Hutchison spoke to the Texas Federation of Republican Women on Saturday, delivering a speech that was rather restrained in its criticism of Perry, Perry spokesman Mark Miner said in a statement: “We are glad Senator Hutchison finally made a decision not to resign. It is unfortunate that while speaking about fighting in Washington for Texas, she also took the opportunity to attack Texas and our principled Republican leadership in the legislature. Governor Perry will continue to highlight the success of our great state and his vision for an even better future.”
Perry criticizes President Barack Obama and Congress with what seems like each breath he takes these days. Does that mean that he is attacking America?
• In her 1990 campaign for state treasurer, Hutchison was running against Democrat Nikki Van Hightower, who was Harris County treasurer at the time. In a Houston Chronicle article, Hutchison criticized Van Hightower for neglecting her Harris County job while running for statewide office. Hutchison said, “She is not here. She is campaigning all over Texas. But she is taking her pay from the taxpayers of Harris County. I don’t consider that integrity, and I don’t consider it leadership.”
• Ross Ramsey of the Texas Tribune was first to report over the weekend that House Calendars Committee Chairman Brian McCall will not seek re-election next year. Paul Burka reported Sunday that McCall does not plan on running for something else. And Ramsey reported Sunday that Plano City Councilwoman Mabrie Griffith Jackson is poised to get in the race.
• Former U.S. Rep. William Jefferson, D-La., was sentenced to 13 years in prison late last week, which, according to Roll Call, was the longest sentence ever for a member of Congress. A federal jury in August found Jefferson guilty of 11 criminal charges, including conspiracy to solicit bribes, money laundering, wire fraud and a pattern of racketeering activity. (I previously said 11 years.)
Poll watch
In a national poll conducted in October by researchers at the University of Texas, 58 percent of respondents say the source of a candidate’s campaign contributions are a factor in how they vote, but only 29 percent say the amount of money that a candidate raises is a factor. Respondents say they believe the three biggest factors influencing how members of Congress vote are campaign contributors, party affiliation and lobbyists. See the questions and responses here.
Your new BCS and AP top five: 1. Florida 2. Alabama 3. Texas 4. TCU 5. Cincinnati
Countdown
17 days until the start of the filing period.
49 days until the end of the filing period.
92 days until early voting begins.
106 days until the March 2 primaries.
In the news
“By the end of the month, the federal Environmental Protection Agency will probably declare that Texas’ air permitting program lacks adequate public participation and transparency. The decision, which could have profound and expensive consequences for power plants and petrochemical facilities across the state because it may force them to apply for new permits, is the latest sign of a widening rift between the Obama administration and Texas regulators on environmental policy.” Austin American-Statesman
“A consultant hired to diagnose the ills that have plagued Texas’ $863 million data center consolidation project with IBM Corp. said Friday that the current deal is dysfunctional and unsustainable. But the landmark project can — and should — be salvaged because the idea of streamlining the data center operations still makes sense, said Karen Robinson, the newly appointed head of the Texas Department of Information Resources. To make this project work, however, the terms of the contract will have to be changed, she said.” Austin American-Statesman
“In the obscure and often overlooked down-ballot races for Dallas County constable, incumbents need campaign money and volunteers from wherever they can find them. And in some precincts, much of that money and help comes from the constables’ employees, according to campaign reports and current and former deputies.” Dallas Morning News
“Republican Gov. Rick Perry, seeking re-election with a down-home Texas message, took on the role of world traveler this year, making a dozen cross-country or international trips and ringing up tens of thousands of dollars in taxpayer-funded security costs.” Associated Press
“Customs and Border Patrol officials said the program Gov. Rick Perry pointed to during his Midland visit as evidence the federal government is trying to punish Texas is an effective way to deport illegal Mexican immigrants.” Midland Reporter-Telegram
“Gov. Rick Perry quickly rebuffed a suggestion by the chairman of the state Senate Transportation Committee on Friday for a 10-cent increase in the state gasoline tax to help finance Texas’ transportation needs.” Fort Worth Star-Telegram
“Through all the debate, intrigue and jostling during the last legislative session, something familiar was missing: A lobby-funded advertising war. The lobby spent just $740,000 from January to June on television and other media intended to influence legislation and regulation — a fraction of what it invested during years past, state ethics records show.” Texas Tribune
“David Plouffe managed one of the most ingenious campaigns in history, a crusade that led to the election of President Barack Obama. But as his plane landed in Dallas last week, Plouffe was still irritated about the one that got away from Obama and him: the Texas primary.” Dallas Morning News
“How does an 8-cents-a-gallon increase in the gasoline tax to fund transportation sound? What about state recognition of same-sex civil unions with the same rights as traditional marriage, a $5,000 teacher pay raise, and bigger penalties for polluters? They’re certainly not all politically canny positions (who campaigns on new taxes?), but give Democratic candidate for governor Hank Gilbert this much: He’s already offered detailed proposals in some half-dozen areas affecting Texans. That gives Gilbert something other gubernatorial candidates largely don’t yet have less than four months before the primary.” Peggy Fikac
“Sarah Palin ’s new book reprises familiar claims from the 2008 presidential campaign that haven’t become any truer over time. Ignoring substantial parts of her record if not the facts, she depicts herself as a frugal traveler on the taxpayer’s dime, a reformer without ties to powerful interests and a politician roguishly indifferent to high ambition.” Associated Press
Everything else
Cowboys fall to 6-3 with a 17-7 road loss to Green Bay.
Rockets beat the Lakers on the road, 101-91, and Houston’s record is now 6-4.
Mavericks posted a 95-90 win over the Pistons to move to 7-3 on the season.
Weekend box office: 1. 2012 2. A Christmas Carol 3. The Men Who Stare at Goats 4. Precious 5. This is It
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Perry, Hutchison to address same crowd this weekend
TFRW in Galveston … Drudge loves him some Rick Perry … Three Texas congressional races deemed possibly competitive
Happy birthday to Rep. Patricia Harless, Dallas County Republican Party Chairman Jonathan Neerman and Ben Philpott of KUT and the Texas Tribune and, on Saturday, Robert Wood of Texas State Networks Radio.
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Intervals of clouds and sun. Breezy and warm with a high of 77.
It’s Friday the 13th!
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading when I post it. Let me know if you want the Blackberry-friendly version. It doesn’t have the videos, but it pretty much has everything else.)
Thursday highlights and the day ahead
The Texas Federation of Republican Women is holding a big meeting in Galveston this weekend, and all of the GOP candidates for governor will be there. Debra Medina and Gov. Rick Perry will speak today, and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison will speak Saturday.
Perry and Hutchison addressed the same crowd in Austin during the legislative session, when they somewhat-awkwardly had to stare a stage. Not this time. My guess is that Perry won’t mention her by name, but of course will talk a lot about Washington. Will Hutchison take the fight directly to Perry?
• That’s not all Perry will be doing this weekend. His Texas A&M Aggies are playing the Oklahoma Sooners, and Perry is scheduled to attend a fundraiser hosted by longtime Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer.
• The governor’s assertion Wednesday in Midland that the Obama administration is “hell-bent on taking America towards a socialist country” had quite a kick to it on Thursday. As you know, it was the lead item in First Reading, which isn’t unusual, but for most of the day, this blog was the centerpiece of the Drudge Report. That brought more than 200,000 page views to First Reading (slowing the Statesman to a crawl for much of the day) and, more importantly, landed Perry a spot on Fox News in the afternoon. These are the kinds of days that show why we might be talking about Perry the presidential candidate in a year or two, as Paul Burka suggested earlier this week.
• Midland was the source of all sorts of interesting stuff this week. According to the Midland Reporter-Telegram, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst was also in town: The paper said, “Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who spoke before Perry and later with the Reporter-Telegram editorial board, said the 2009 budget was balanced with the help of stimulus funds, though he added it could’ve been balanced in their absence, as well. Dewhurst also added they worked to put those federal dollars toward things that have a one-time use.”
Yes, the budget could have been balanced without stimulus dollars. But that’s not how lawmakers chose to do it.
• The Cook Political Report is out with new ratings of U.S. House districts. Three Texas seats make the list, meaning they are somewhere in the neighborhood of competitive: U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco, holds a seat that is deemed “lean Democratic.” Rep. Ciro Rodriguez’s San Antonio-based seat is deemed “likely Democratic,” (if you’re the incumbent, you’d rather be “likely” than “lean”) and Rep. Michael McCaul’s Austin-to-Houston seat is tagged “likely Republican.”
• Earlier this week, state Rep. Chuck Hopson picked up the endorsement of Brian Walker, the Republican who tried to defeat him in 2008. This week, Walker lauded Hopson’s move from the Democratic Party to the GOP, saying, “As Chuck’s former opponent, I know he is tough and fights fair, and I respect that.”
Walker was much more critical in an October 2008 story in the Jacksonville Daily Progress, when he accused Hopson of lying. He told the newspaper, “He (Hopson) has sent out mail pieces that are patently false, and where I come from that’s called lying. That type of deception has no place in politics. I’ve been told that I have been too negative towards him, but all I have done is point out the times he has said one thing to the voters and then gone to Austin and done the exact opposite. Everything we run about Chuck Hopson is cited specifically so that you can go look it up yourself and see the truth. You will find in Chuck Hopson’s mail that he doesn’t cite anything.”
• Gardner Selby and I stepped into the Texas Political Parlor on Thursday with KUT’s Ian Crawford, and we discussed a number of issues around Texas politics this week. You can listen here, and all segments of this weekly series are available on our Virtual Capitol site.
• Be sure to check out Brandi Grissom’s well-reported series on the Texas border over at the Texas Tribune. Today’s is the sixth installment, but you should read all of them. Brandi does something smart here: While each installment is newsy and full of good info, each is also relatively brief, which makes the series incredibly readable.
Poll watch
A new Rasmussen Reports poll says Gov. Rick Perry is ahead of U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, 46 percent to 35 percent, among voters who plan to take part in the March Republican primary.
The poll is significant because, two months ago, Rasmussen showed Hutchison leading Perry by two points.
Wharton businesswoman Debra Medina draws 4 percent in the poll, and 14 percent of respondents did not know who they plan to support.
Countdown
20 days until the start of the filing period.
52 days until the end of the filing period.
95 days until early voting begins.
109 days until the March 2 primaries.
In the news
“Gov. Rick Perry has opened up a new front in his yearlong political war against the federal government, accusing the Obama administration this week of dumping thousands of illegal immigrants on a small, unsuspecting Texas border town.” Austin American-Statesman
“An Austin federal judge has overturned personal damages of $21,250 that a jury had imposed on the chairwoman of the state parole board a month ago, but the judge did not change the finding that officials violated a paroled convict’s constitutional rights by denying him a required hearing for 576 days.” Austin American-Statesman
“Today, let’s meet Hank Gilbert, whose chances of being governor are about the same as yours unless your name is Rick Perry or Kay Bailey Hutchison. (And if either of those is your name, thanks for reading, but don’t you have some important governoring or senatoring you should be doing?)” Ken Herman
“Hispanics accounted for more than half of the 95 swine flu-related deaths in Texas in the first six months of the H1N1 pandemic, an analysis by the state health department found.” Houston Chronicle
“Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison tells The Dallas Morning News that the Fort Hood shooter should face 14 murder charges, not just 13. The Army announced that Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan will face one specification of murder for each casualty. But as Hutchison points out, one of the soldiers killed in the rampage a week ago was pregnant: Private Francheska Velez, who had already served in Korea and in Iraq, was expecting her first child.” Dallas Morning News
“Faced with the worst domestic economy in decades, the president has responded — by setting a record for foreign travel. An Asian swing that began Thursday will bring his total this year to 20 countries in eight trips, according to CBS News’s Mark Knoller, official statistician of the White House press corps.” Dana Milbank
“The Republican National Committee’s health insurance plan covers elective abortion - a procedure the party’s own platform calls ‘a fundamental assault on innocent human life.’” Politico
“The rumors are true, according to Sarah Palin: The McCain-Palin campaign was not a happy family.” Associated Press
Everything else
Jay Cutler threw five interceptions as the Bears lost to the 49ers, 10-6, in the first Thursday night NFL game of the season.
New in theaters: “2012,” “An Education,” “Brief Interviews with Hideous Men,” “Bronson,” “Flame and Citron,” “Pirate Radio” and “Splinterheads.”
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Perry says Obama taking U.S. toward socialism
Governor uses s-word in front of Midland crowd … State official fired over remarks about Spanish-speakers … Former forensic chairman disagrees with Bradley
Happy birthday to conservative activist Jim Cardle and Jim Hurley of the Texas Youth Commission.
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Mainly sunny with temps slightly above average. High of 77.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading when I post it. Let me know if you want the Blackberry-friendly version. It doesn’t have the videos, but it pretty much has everything else.)
Wednesday highlights and the day ahead
Gov. Rick Perry had some pretty strong comments about the Obama administration on Wednesday in Midland, saying, “This is an administration hell-bent on taking America towards a socialist country.”
Here’s the full video, and it’s pretty important, so I suggest you watch:
Find more videos like this on Mywesttexas Chatter
The first part of Perry’s remarks focused on what’s called the Alien Transfer and Exit Program, something that he has been talking about for more than a week. Perry describes it as a plan where illegal immigrants who are captured in Arizona are sent to the small Texas town of Presidio and set free. It’s a sign that the Obama administration is trying to punish Texas, Perry said, adding that members of the state’s congressional delegation, as well as his office, weren’t given any warning of the administration’s plans for Presidio.
But there’s more to the program than Perry described.
According to a story by the CBS affiliate in Odessa, the illegal immigrants are returned to Mexico via secured buses. The station also reported, “last year 4,500 illegals were sent back through Presidio. Now 94 will be bused across this bridge 7 days a week.”
In addition, Brandi Grissom of the Texas Tribune reported last month that Bill Brooks, spokesman for the Border Patrol Marfa Sector, where Presidio is located, said the plan would not create any burden on the local community.
Grissom wrote, “The plan will bring two buses per day to Texas, each with 74 undocumented immigrants. The immigrants will be checked for health problems and will have signed voluntary deportation agreements. The program will not involve immigrants charged with criminal violations, Brooks said. Mexican officials are participating and will provide the immigrants with bus tickets to their hometowns, Brooks said.”
Advocates for the program say the point of transferring the immigrants from Arizona to Texas is to breaking the smuggling cycle that allowed them to enter in the first place, Robert Gilbert, the Tucson sector chief for the U.S. Border Patrol, wrote in a January op-ed. He wrote that in 2008 (during the Bush administration), more than 10,000 illegal immigrants were removed through the program (although it did not go through Texas then). Gilbert wrote, “The largest impact can only be made by breaking the smuggling cycle, by putting up barriers and checkpoints that make the business of smuggling humans and narcotics unprofitable and unattractive. Only as the smuggling cycle is disrupted do we see consistent decreases in arrests and increases in drug seizures.”
• The Statesman’s Gardner Selby has the story this morning of an official in the secretary of state’s office who was fired Wednesday after she made some controversial remarks to a meeting of Democratic and Republican county chairs about helping Spanish-speaking voters. When you click on Gardner’s story, you can hear full audio of those remarks, as well as the response from a member of the audience who didn’t like what she heard.
• Sam Bassett, the former head of the Texas Forensic Science Commission, took objection Wednesday to the panel’s new chairman saying the need to develop rules and procedures could delay the inquiry into the case of Cameron Todd Willingham and the controversial arson investigation that led to Willingham’s execution. “Mr. Bradley stated that he believes that the Commission needs ‘rules and procedures’ before it can move forward,” Bassett said. “I respectfully disagree. Though the Commission might benefit in the long term from development of written standards, I do not believe that this should result in paralysis of Commission activity. The Commission doesn’t need to evolve into a large, bureaucratic State agency to carry out its mission.”
Bradley objected to Bassett’s objection, saying, “Mr. Bassett is changing his story. He clearly told me that he was scared of the hearing getting out of control because the Commission had no plan or rules for the hearing.”
The Statesman’s Mike Ward has more on this over on the Postcards blog.
• Wayne Slater of the Dallas Morning News reported Wednesday that Kay Bailey Hutchison’s campaign has been checking out the availability of TV time over the next couple of months — a sign that the campaign may be thinking of going up with ads soon. Hutchison spokeswoman Jennifer Baker downplayed, saying the campaign has been making such inquiries since August, and that the Perry campaign is doing the same.
• Hutchison is supporting legislation to limit members of the U.S. Senate to two terms, Todd Gillman reports. She also wants to limit the Texas governor (not just the current one) to two terms. Of course, since we’re talking term limits, it’s important to remember that early in her Senate career, Hutchison said she’d only serve two terms, and she’s now on her third.
• Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hank Gilbert laid out his environmental agenda Wednesday on the shores of Lady Bird Lake. Among his proposals: A newly named agency, the Texas Environmental Commission, where all environmental regulations would be consolidated; an elected chairman of the Public Utility Commission; property-tax incentives for homeowners who install solar panels; higher energy efficiency standards for residential and business construction; and a requirement that more of the state’s energy supply comes from renewable sources.
• A second Republican has stepped forward to say he’ll challenge GOP Rep. Fred Brown. This time it’s Rick Davis, a former district judge, according to the Bryan-College Station Eagle. Brown still hasn’t announced whether he’ll run again.
Poll watch
Pew Research Center: “About half (52 percent) of registered voters would like to see their own representative re-elected next year, while 34 percent say that most members of Congress should be re-elected. Both measures are among the most negative in two decades of Pew Research surveys. Other low points were during the 1994 and 2006 election cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections. Support for congressional incumbents is particularly low among political independents.”
A random sample of 500 Texans done for Citicorp’s financial services arm in September found 38 percent have dipped into savings to pay their bills and more than one in three are working longer hours to make ends meet. Source: Dallas Morning News.
Countdown
21 days until the start of the filing period.
53 days until the end of the filing period.
96 days until early voting begins.
110 days until the March 2 primaries.
In the news
“Congressman Ciro Rodriguez cast what might have been the defining vote of his current term late Saturday when he supported a massive Democratic health care reform measure. He also might have defined the landscape of his bid for re-election — which could involve the same field as his last race.” Scott Stroud
“Lawmakers have tightened the reins on lobbyists who peddle services to state agencies, cutting their commissions and forcing them to register with the Texas Ethics Commission. But state contractors - many of whom get paid top dollar to advise Texas agencies - are largely immune from such reporting requirements. In some cases, information technology contractors are working for the state while helping private companies bid on government contracts within the same agency.” Texas Tribune
“A group of doctors overseeing Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan’s medical training discussed concerns about his zealous religious views and strange behavior months before he was accused in the shooting rampage at Fort Hood that left 13 dead and dozens wounded.” Associated Press
“Veteran CNN anchor Lou Dobbs, whose populist views on the perils of immigration and his repeated questioning of President Barack Obama’s birthplace made him a controversial figure on a network that has traditionally eschewed opinion, announced Wednesday night that he is resigning.” Politico
Everything else
Rockets beat the Grizzlies, 104-79.
Spurs beat the Mavs, 92-83.
Astros outfielder Michael Bourn picked up a Gold Glove on Wednesday.
Taylor Swift was the big winner at the 2009 Country Music Awards. And she got to finish all of her speeches, so that’s pretty cool.
Another great catch by the folks at the Daily Show. Watch as Jon Stewart demonstrates how Sean Hannity’s program blended footage from two different rallies in Washington and pretended the clips came from the same event:
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| Sean Hannity Uses Glenn Beck’s Protest Footage | ||||
| ||||
On his show last night, Hannity didn’t offer an explanation, but did say Stewart “was correct. We screwed up.” Here’s the footage:
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Former GOP foe endorses Hopson
Hopson gets boost in his new party … Unemployment taxes going up … Some sparks at hearing on forensic commission
Happy birthday to two Senate chiefs of staff: Jennifer Ransom Rice (Shapiro) and Ian Randolph (Lucio).
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Patchy morning clouds giving way to sunshine. High of 79.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading when I post it. Let me know if you want the Blackberry-friendly version. It doesn’t have the videos, but it pretty much has everything else.)
Tuesday highlights and the day ahead
Brian Walker, the Republican who almost defeated Rep. Chuck Hopson in last year’s general election, is announcing today that he will endorse Hopson, who last week switched from the Democratic to Republican Party.
“Chuck has always been a conservative. I applaud his move to the Republican party as courageous and in the best interests of all families in House District 11 and East Texas,” Walker said.
On Tuesday, Texans for Lawsuit Reform endorsed Hopson. This wasn’t too surprising, considering that the group supported him heavily when he ran in 2008 as a Democrat. But like the Walker endorsement, the backing of TLR could help him hold off challengers in the Republican primary who question whether he is a true conservative.
Hopson picked up one other endorsement Tuesday, but he probably doesn’t want it. Democratic consultant Harold Cook wrote on his blog that he harbored no ill feelings toward Hopson for switching parties.
Cook wrote, “I feel a strong connection to Chuck. That’s why when Chuck’s Republican primary election battle heats up next Spring, I plan to personally travel to East Texas to help him campaign to keep his job. I will visit all the newspapers in the region, starting with Palestine and Jacksonville, where I can tell all the reporters who will listen that as a progressive Democratic Austin insider who supports abortion and equal rights for gay Texans, and opposes prayer in schools, I am so very proud of liberal Chuck Hopson, who has been in Austin for so very very long. I want everybody in his district to know it, and I know Chuck will be pleased.
“I will book myself as a guest on some of the conservative radio programs in Chuck’s district, where I can explain how time after time, Chuck bravely stood with the House Democratic Caucus. I might even get a chance to explain my views on abortion, gay rights, and prayer in schools on the radio too. I could also publicly mull over who Chuck may have cast his vote for in the most recent primary election he voted in - Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. I’m sure Chuck will be thrilled to learn of this.”
With friends like that …
• As expected, the Texas Workforce Commission moved Tuesday to increase unemployment taxes on Texas businesses in order to pay for higher jobless claims. Reports Peggy Fikac of the Houston Chronicle: “Texas employers next year will pay more than twice the $1.09 billion in jobless insurance taxes they are paying this year and the tab will go up after that, according to estimates released by the Texas Workforce Commission Tuesday. Under state law, the state’s unemployment trust fund is supposed to stand at 1 percent of taxable wages, or about $860 million. The fund has been depleted in the wake of high jobless claims. As a result, employers will have to pay more to restore the fund to its mandated level, although the commission tried to cushion the blow by spreading the deficit assessment over several years.”
The Texas Association of Business commended the commission’s efforts. Last year, the commission cut these taxes, and Perry himself has said businesses expect the tax to go up and down based on economic circumstances.
• John Bradley, the new chairman of the Texas Forensic Science Commission, told a Senate committee Tuesday that the commission needs to develop new rules before it can move forward with its inquiry into the arson investigation used to convict Cameron Todd Willingham. That could mean months of additional delay. He also appeared to disagree with some senators about how public the commission’s work should be, and he pointed the fact that one of the senators questioning him, Sen. Rodney Ellis, is chairman of the board of the Innocence Project, which filed the complaint raising questions about the arson evidence in the Willingham case. Read Mike Ward’s story from this morning’s Statesman here.
• President Barack Obama has received some rave reviews for his speech Tuesday at the Fort Hood memorial. Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic: “Today, at Ft. Hood. I guarantee: they’ll be teaching this one in rhetoric classes. It was that good. My gloss won’t do it justice. Yes, I’m having a Chris Matthews-chill-running-up-my-leg moment, but sometimes, the man, the moment and the words come together and meet the challenge. Obama had to lead a nation’s grieving; he had to try and address the thorny issues of Islam and terrorism; to be firm; to express the spirit of America, using familiar, comforting tropes in a way that didn’t sound trite.”
Todd Gilllman of the Dallas Morning News got this reaction from none other than Gov. Rick Perry: “I thought it was spot on.”
• With her opponent, Perrry, having recently sided in a New York congressional race with those who wanted a member of the Conservative Party over a moderate-to-liberal Republican, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison makes a big-tent argument of sorts in an op-ed posted last night on the Washington Times Web site. Says the senator: “There are too many Americans who think their needs are not being met by the political parties. These are Americans who want our nation to prosper through business and enterprise and to see our nation stand strong among other nations through a robust military and a formidable national defense. They are patriotic. They are hardworking. They have dreams for themselves and great hopes and goals for their children. But many of them have not been embraced by the Republican Party, and the empty platitudes of the Democrats have not lived up to their promises.”
• Will the last name hurt him or help him? Charles Perry of Lubbock announced Tuesday that he will challenge Rep. Delwin Jones in the Republican primary, and he immediately touted his support of voter ID legislation. “I’m all of the things that will drive Austin liberals crazy, but make the folks here at home proud,” Perry said.
Sounds like the other Perry.
• The Statesman’s Gardner Selby got a very brief interview Tuesday with Democrat Jack McDonald, who hopes to unseat U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul next year. Selby asked whether McDonald would have voted for the health-care plan passed by the House last weekend.
We’re still wondering.
Here’s the video:
Poll watch
From Gallup: Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48 percent to 44 percent among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup’s generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month.
Countdown
22 days until the start of the filing period.
54 days until the end of the filing period.
97 days until early voting begins.
111 days until the March 2 primaries.
In the news
“State employees who process food stamp applications — and have been working long hours because of an application backlog — will get a one-time bonus worth 3.5 percent of their salary, Health and Human Services Executive Commissioner Tom Suehs told workers Tuesday in an e-mail. He also announced that he’s suspending mandatory overtime during the weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s.” Austin American-Statesman
“George Strake of Houston, a former Texas secretary of state and past chairman of the Republican Party of Texas, has signed on as treasurer in a candidate’s campaign to chair the party, the candidate announced Tuesday.” Austin American-Statesman
“Gov. Rick Perry made a brilliant choice in John Bradley to head the Texas Forensic Science Commission — at least for his own purposes. But after a two-hour hearing Tuesday before Sen. John Whitmire’s Criminal Justice Committee in which legislators grilled the Williamson County district attorney on his plans regarding the commission, it’s far from clear that the governor’s choice will serve the justice system.” Rick Casey
“The state windstorm insurer may have unfairly stacked the deck against homeowners with Hurricane Ike claims, according to a lawsuit filed Friday, and that has one lawmaker calling for an investigation.” Houston Chronicle
“State agencies are spending tens of millions of dollars every year on information technology contract workers, employees who aren’t on the state payroll - but whose pay often dwarfs those who are.” Texas Tribune
“University Park residents packed City Hall on Tuesday for their first chance to vent about plans to build the Bush presidential library at Southern Methodist University and redevelop the southern part of Snider Plaza.” Dallas Morning News
“The City Council voted 6-3 late Tuesday to expand its anti-discrimination ordinance to include transgender people, capping a marathon debate over a series of gay-rights proposals that were forwarded after a controversial inspection of a gay bar.” Fort Worth Star-Telegram
“Palin supporters have constructed an alternative reality in which their heroine is wildly cheered by the American yeomanry, and despised only by a small coterie of sherry-drinking snobs. No contrary evidence, no matter how overwhelming and uncontradicted, can alter this view: not the collapse in Palin’s support in just 5 weeks in 2008, not the statistical studies that show her as the only vice presidential nominee in history to have hurt her ticket, not her rampant unpopularity with American women, not her own flinching from a second encounter with the Alaskan electorate.” David Frum
Everything else
Mavericks beat the Rockets on Tuesday, 121-103. (Boooo!) Mavs are 5-2, Rockets are 4-3.
Baseball general managers opt not to expand instant replay, The Associated Press reports.
Leonardo DiCaprio turns 35 today.
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How Hutchison spends her time in Texas
Senator’s limited time in state not always focused on governor’s race … Obama in Texas today for memorial … Forensic hearing set for this morning
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Scattered morning clouds and areas of fog, then becoming mostly sunny. High of 78.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it. Please note whether you want the Blackberry-friendly version.)
Monday highlights and the day ahead
U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison was in Corpus Christi and McAllen on Monday to talk about federal health-care reform.
Because she is a sitting senator, Hutchison has to spend at least a few days a week in Washington. And because early voting starts in the governor’s race in a little over three months, it would appear that every day that she has in the state is valuable. Yet Hutchison is not using many of those days to take the fight right to Gov. Rick Perry, who, if you believe last week’s poll from the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune, is ahead of her. Nor is she using her time to lay out any sort of agenda for what she’d like to do as governor.
Of course, any time Hutchison appears before the media around the state, she is likely to get asked about Perry and the governor’s race, and that will make it into news coverage. But she seems to be doing little herself to forcefully drive a message about the governor’s race.
Each morning, the Hutchison campaign sends out a collection of news stories and editorials that it wants to highlight and talks about what she will be doing that day. Often it simply says that she is in Washington to fight for Texas, or something like that. But consider some of the recent descriptions, from her own campaign, of how she’s spending her days in Texas.
Monday: “Today, Kay Bailey Hutchison is in Corpus Christi and McAllen where she will talk about the recently passed House Democrat government-run health care bill and what it will mean for Texas.”
Nov. 2: “As for today’s schedule, Kay Bailey Hutchison is in San Antonio for a ‘Women for Kay’ event. Also this afternoon, the campaign will host a conference call to announce the formation of a new coalition.” (It was her Aggies for Kay coalition.)
Oct. 31: “Hutchison has no public events.”
Oct. 30: “As for today’s schedule, Hutchison is in Houston to campaign for Proposition 11 on the last day of early voting.”
Oct. 26: “Today, Kay Bailey Hutchison is in the Dallas area where she will hold a ‘Women for Kay’ coalition lunch. She will also address a conference of North American restaurant owners in the morning.”
Oct. 24: “Kay Bailey Hutchison will early vote in Dallas and hold a media availability afterwards.”
Oct. 23: “Hutchison will be in the San Antonio area for events and a media tour to promote Proposition 11.” (“Events” is usually campaign talk for fundraisers.)
Oct. 17: “As for today’s schedule, Kay Bailey Hutchison is at the UT game and will also get in some tailgating this afternoon at the SMU game.”
Her Texas schedule is heavy on fundraisers — certainly something Gov. Rick Perry spends several days a week doing as well — and, before last Tuesday’s election, talking about Proposition 11, which limited the government’s eminent-domain powers. Certainly an argument can be made that talking about that proposal allowed her to draw attention to Perry’s unpopular Trans-Texas Corridor and his 2007 veto of eminent-domain legislation (which hurt him badly with the Texas Farm Bureau). Still, the proposition she touted was championed by Perry.
And certainly there’s plenty for Republican primary voters to like when she bashes Democratic efforts to reform the health-care system. But when it comes to bashing the Obama administration, can she really out-do Perry? After all, he’s spending a lot of time talking about federal issues also, and he’s not even a federal official.
Her schedule seems to reinforce what we’ve heard for a long time: while much more aggressive now than it was in the first seven months of the year, her campaign doesn’t appear to think voters want an all-out fight for the nomination to last more than the two months between New Year’s and the election. (Since so many people vote early these days, it’s really more like a month and a half, but whatever). And she’s continuing to hold her cards close to her vest when it comes to creating a contrast with Perry on issues, although we’re told that it’s coming. But with the primary season rapidly approaching and the question of whether she is going to resign her seat still hanging over her head, how long can she afford to wait?
When I asked Hutchison spokesman Joe Pounder about all this he said, “Every day, she is talking about issues that affect Texans and their futures,” such as education, health care, private property right, the state’s business climate and transportation.
• President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will be in Texas today to visit with shooting victims and attend a memorial at Fort Hood. Because of the service, Gov. Rick Perry has canceled today’s Austin fundraiser — the one for which Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission Chairman Jose Cuevas sought donations from the people he regulates.
Speaking of the Fort Hood tragedy, the Washington Post reports this morning: “The Army psychiatrist believed to have killed 13 people at Fort Hood warned a roomful of senior Army physicians a year and a half ago that to avoid “adverse events,” the military should allow Muslim soldiers to be released as conscientious objectors instead of fighting in wars against other Muslims.”
• The case of Cameron Todd Willingham is back in the news today as the Senate Criminal Justice Committee holds a hearing on the Texas Forensic Science Commission. New chairman John Bradley will address the committee. The Statesman says today in an editorial: “Bradley said the agency needs more resources and a clear set of policies and procedures. He is correct. But we are deeply concerned by his call for broad power, as enjoyed by state agencies with investigative authority, to keep materials ‘confidential until a final decision is released.’ That probably would include reports such as the one in the Willingham case.”
• Did I speak too soon Monday when I said Rep. Chuck Hopson had created an easier path to re-election by switching to the Republican Party? Perhaps, because it doesn’t sound like Hopson is certain to get the Republican nomination, where other candidates are looking at a primary challenge.
Tony McDonald of the Young Conservatives of Texas said Monday, “We know Chuck is a wolf in sheep’s clothes, and we will let all the Republicans in District 11 know this fact before casting their vote in the primary. Now that the tide is changing in the Republican Party, we will not accept liberal Democrats in Republican areas switching parties to try to find a safe harbor.”
• Conservative commentator William Murchison writes for the American Spectator about the Perry-Hutchison race. Murchison worries about how the cost and tone of the race might affect the bigger picture for the Texas Republican Party: “She sees the coming four years as her turn to be governor: that’s what it appears to be about. I’m sorry, to tell the truth, that she sees it that way, because, under other circumstances, she might be an effective and efficient governor. We don’t live under those circumstances. The Hutchison candidacy — let me put it this way — has potential to rip the Republican Party in twain and restore Texas to at least partial Democratic control. Anyway the Democrats sure hope so.”
Murchison is effectively repeating the Perry campaign’s assertion that any damage caused by the race is Hutchison’s fault, not Perry’s. Which again raises the question: Why is he any more entitled to run than she is? His term is up in January 2011. After that, isn’t the governor’s office open to anybody who voters decide should have it?
Murchison also offers a decidedly one-sided description of Perry’s tenure in office. Nonetheless, it’s a good read, and certainly worth your time if you have a few minutes.
Poll watch
From the New York Times: “Americans are feeling more doubtful about an overhaul of the health care system than they were in September, according to a new Gallup poll. The House narrowly approved health care legislation late Saturday night, but the poll, which was conducted from Thursday through Sunday, asked only about the prospects for a health care overhaul in general. More than a third (36 percent) of respondents said that new health care legislation would make their own personal situations worse, while 31 percent said it would not make much difference and 26 percent said it would improve their situations.”
Countdown
23 days until the start of the filing period.
55 days until the end of the filing period.
98 days until early voting begins.
112 days until the March 2 primaries.
In the news
“The FBI and the military investigated contacts between an Army psychiatrist accused of last week’s deadly shooting rampage at Fort Hood and a Yemen-based militant over the past year but concluded he didn’t pose a terrorist threat, senior law enforcement and military officials said Monday.” Chicago Tribune
“Initially dismissed by some as inconsequential shout-a-thons and by others as pseudo-events cooked up by GOP-leaning special interests, the tea parties are showing signs of branching out from rallies to involvement in election-year politics. The movement has inspired some people to consider running for Congress and others to make plans for candidate forums.” Austin American-Statesman
“As he attacks Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison for her votes in Washington, Rick Perry is also criticizing much of the Texas delegation to Congress. Their votes, in most cases, are in lockstep with Hutchison’s. During Sunday’s airing of Inside Texas Politics on WFAA (Channel 8), Perry didn’t back away from his rhetoric, even when asked if his remarks included Sen. John Cornyn.” Gromer Jeffers Jr.
“The Texas Ethics Commission has been criticized for timidly enforcing campaign, lobbying and officeholder rules — and for issuing measly fines that did little to prompt better behavior. That’s changing, however. Just ask Jerry Eversole.” Texas Tribune
Everything else
The Denver Broncos appear to be fading after losing 28-10 to the Steelers on “Monday Night Football.”
Spurs beat Toronto, 131-124. Spurs are now 3-3.
“Saturday Night Live” had a pretty good take on Fox News’ coverage of last Tuesday’s elections. Enjoy:
Ellen Pompeo (you and I know her as Meredith Grey) turns 40 today.
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Winners and losers in the Hopson party switch
State rep’s move full of implications … A hat in the El Paso ring … Another big dip in sales-tax receipts shows state economy suffering
Happy birthday to lobbyist Kathy Grant.
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: More clouds than sun with a chance of scattered showers. High of 76.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it.)
Weekend highlights and the day ahead
Friday’s announcement that Rep. Chuck Hopson is switching to the Republican Party reverberated well beyond Hopson’s East Texas district. To borrow a page from my favorite political blog, let’s look at who came out well, and not so well, once his announcement was made.
WINNERS
Speaker Joe Straus: One seat may not seem like much in a body of 150 members, and it may prove not to be. Plus, Democrats still have a good shot at regaining the House next year. But Republicans now have a 77-73 majority, and are likely to pick up a seat rather easily with the retirement of Rep. David Farabee, D-Wichita Falls. But with a relatively small number of seats that are competitive between the parties, an expected pickup of two seats is a significant step toward a retained majority for Republicans. And it’s very difficult to see anyone other than Straus serving as speaker if the GOP keeps the majority. If a couple more Republicans pick up seats in 2010, Straus will have a feather in his cap with the GOP partisans who don’t like the fact that he’s a social moderate.
Cathie Adams: Last week, seven Democratic officials in Hardin County announced that they were becoming Republicans. Then Hopson switched. Adams may have had nothing to do with any of those flips, but the fact is that they came shortly after she became chairwoman of the Texas Republican Party, and any party chair wants to be able to brag about growing the party. She predicted when she came in as chair that there could be a wave of changes, and while this is not yet a wave, it’s a nice start for her.
Rep. Harvey Hilderbran: While he insists that others were working with him, Hilderbran had been talking to Hopson about switching parties on and off for two years and may be the lawmaker most associated with encouraging him to make the change. It’s unclear whether this will affect Hilderbran’s role in the House, but there’s got to be a way he can use it to his advantage. He told me Friday he’s got his eye on another Democrat that he hopes to convince to switch.
Bryan Eppstein: The ubiquitous Forth Worth-based Republican consultant picks up another client. Just what he needs.
Rep. Chuck Hopson: Others can debate whether this was an act of courage or political expediency. But the plain truth is that Hopson now has a much easier path to re-election next year, considering that he was already persuading a large number of Republicans in his district to vote for him when he was a Democrat. And as long as Republicans keep the majority, he is in a better position to protect himself when lawmakers redraw district boundaries next year.
LOSERS
Texas House and U.S. House Democrats: It’s already been said that this move makes it more difficult for Democrats to win back the Texas House. Because Democrats have been so good at winning legislative races in recent years, most of the competitive seats are now held by Democrats. Assuming that the Farabee seat is gone, Democrats will have to hold all of those competitive seats and pick up three Republican seats just to pull even with the GOP. As for congressional Democrats, the growing likelihood of a GOP majority means Republicans will control the congressional redistricting map that comes out of the House, and even if that map does not make it into law, the map does matter to the federal judges who may ultimately draw the district boundaries.
U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison: One of Hutchison’s primary arguments that Republicans need to pick a new governor is that the party has been losing ground in the Legislature under Gov. Rick Perry. That remains true, and I’ve seen no evidence that Perry had anything to do with Hopson’s decision, but coupled with the county-level switches mentioned above, it slightly weakens her argument that the state GOP needs to be saved from Rick Perry.
Rep. Tom Craddick: Craddick may not care, but Straus can now say something that Craddick never could: that the House GOP majority actually grew on his watch. If Craddick desires a return to power, his best bet may have been a temporary Democratic resurgence that would have toppled Straus and left Republicans looking for a leader.
• On Saturday night’s major health-care vote, Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards of Waco was the only Texan to break with the rest of his party when he voted against the plan.
The Statesman’s Gardner Selby has more on how Edwards and the rest of the delegation voted.
And Dave Michaels of the Dallas Morning News Washington bureau has compiled a chart that shows how each Texas lawmaker vote and what the uninsured rate is in each district.
Before the big vote, there was a key vote on a provision that would block the use of federal subsidies for insurance that covers elective abortions. Read more about it here. Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo, Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio, Solomon Ortiz of Corpus Christi and Silvestre Reyes of El Paso voted for that provision, which folks on both sides of the debate are calling one of the most significant abortion restrictions in years.
• El Paso County Attorney Jose Rodriguez announced Sunday that he will seek the Senate seat that Eliot Shapleigh is vacating. He is the first to formally announce his candidacy — sort of. Remember that Rep. Norma Chavez told the Mexican American Legislative Caucus in October that she was running, but then told the El Paso Times, “It was an announcement but not an official announcement.”
• Something to watch this week: Tuesday is the Senate Criminal Justice Committee hearing on the Texas Forensic Science Commission.
Stat of the day
State sales tax collections dropped 12.8 percent in September, as compared to September 2008. It was the fifth straight drop of at least 11 percentage points.
On a related note, Dick Lavine of the Center for Public Policy Priorities found some interesting stuff in the Annual Cash Report, which came out at the end of last week. For the recently concluded 2009 budget year, sales tax collections were $686 million short of what Comptroller Susan Combs had forecast they would be, and natural gas taxes were $420 million short. Since the Rainy Day Fund is almost entirely funded by natural-gas taxes, this means that there could be less money sitting in that Rainy Day Fund at the end of the current budget cycle than lawmakers were counting on.
Poll watch
Only about a third of adults who have tried to get a swine flu vaccine have been able to get it. Source: Harvard School of Public Health
AP college football top 5: Florida, Texas, Alabama, TCU and Cincinnati. Houston is ranked 13th.
Countdown
24 days until the start of the filing period.
56 days until the end of the filing period.
99 days until early voting begins.
113 days until the March 2 primaries.
(Check my math.)
In the news
The Statesman and other news organizations continue comprehensive coverage of the Fort Hood tragedy. Keep up with all of the Statesman’s Fort Hood coverage here.
“Texas’ major public investment funds have stanched the bleeding from the past year’s historic financial market losses and are returning to good health.” Austin American-Statesman
“State Rep. Chuck Hopson switched parties Friday and became a Republican, landing a potentially crushing blow to Democrats’ hopes of retaking control of the Texas House. The fifth-term lawmaker from Jacksonville said in a written statement that President Barack Obama and other Democrats in Washington do not reflect the values and concerns of his district. But critics said the switch was a calculated effort to hang on to a conservative district that he barely retained last year.” Austin American-Statesman
“Through 22 years as a prosecutor, the past eight as Williamson County district attorney, Bradley has amassed convictions and accolades, developing a tough-on-crime reputation. He also hasn’t shied from controversy.” Austin American-Statesman
“Districts are rethinking what they can and should be teaching because of cuts in federal funding, a new state law that requires more parental involvement in sex-education decisions, and increasing reports about Texas’ high teenage pregnancy rate. Some districts are considering compromises along the lines of “abstinence-plus,” a curriculum that warns of the perils of early sexual activity while also discussing more comprehensive methods of prevention.” Dallas Morning News
“Why would Texas rely on the lottery to fund a gap in veterans’ services? Same reason it backed the lottery in the first place.” Peggy Fikac
“One year after hitting bottom in the aftermath of President Obama’s election, Republicans have taken their first concrete steps toward recovery. But they remain an embattled and divided force, facing an electorate still skeptical about their capacity to govern and embroiled in a struggle between party regulars and populist conservative forces over how to return to power.” Washington Post
“President Obama retreated briefly to the serenity of Camp David this weekend, leaving behind seven days that showcased both the promise and the limits of his presidency.” Washington Post
“The White House, growing concerned that the Congressional timetable for passing a health care overhaul could slip into next year, is stepping up pressure on the Senate for quick action, with President Obama appearing Sunday in the Rose Garden to call on senators to ‘take up the baton and bring this effort to the finish line.’” New York Times
“Voters this past week sent many messages to the political establishment in both parties that should be heeded. Here are seven key lessons.” Former U.S. Rep. Tom Davis
Everything else
Texans played their best game ever in Indianapolis, but folks, that ain’t saying much. Kris Brown missed the field goal that would have sent them into overtime and the Texans lost 20-17, falling to 5-4 heading into the bye week.
Cowboys posted an impressive 20-16 road win over the Eagles on Sunday to advance to 6-2. Tony Romo and Miles Austin hooked up for the difference-making touchdown.
Disney’s “A Christmas Carol” won the weekend box office, though it fell short of expectations, and was followed by “This is It” and “The Men Who Stare at Goats.”
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Shooting puts Texas leaders in spotlight
Podcast
Going to do a short version of FR today with a brief look at Thursday’s events from the perspectives of U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Gov. Rick Perry. I’ve also got a podcast about the poll results that came out this week.
One of the first political figures to respond publicly to the shootings was U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. On Thursday afternoon, Hutchison did at least three cable interviews — two on Fox News and one on CNN. Hutchison relayed some of the information that she was getting from Fort Hood, such as updates about the number of people who were wounded.
Hutchison, who as a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee and a member of the Armed Services committee is deeply involved at Fort Hood, has canceled the campaign event she had scheduled for today and will be at the Army post with several members of the Texas congressional delegation.
Gov. Rick Perry had been at a campaign event in the Dallas area around midday and was scheduled to attend another campaign event in Denton in the afternoon before heading to Wichita Falls for a fundraiser. He was on his way from Dallas to Denton when he learned of the shooting. Perry, who canceled his campaign events in Denton and Waxahachie, held a press conference late in the afternoon and discussed the fact that state troopers and Texas Rangers had been sent to Fort Hood to help secure the perimeter. He said he did not want to go to Fort Hood until a point when his presence there would not be a distraction.
Perry’s office later said that the Texas Rangers would assist in the investigation into the shooting.
As for the latest updates, Fort Hood officials said at a news conference early this morning that there were 12 soldiers killed and one civilian killed. The suspected shooter, Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, is in stable condition but on a ventilator, and the civilian police officer who shot Hasan is also in stable condition. Officials did not want to discuss Hasan’s motives, but did confirm that he had orders to deploy.
We also have this from the Associated Press: “The base commander at Fort Hood says soldiers who witnessed a shooting rampage that left 13 people dead reported that the gunman shouted ‘Allahu Akbar!’ before opening fire at the Texas post. Lt. Gen. Robert Cone told NBC’s ‘Today’ show on Friday that suspected shooter, Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, made the comment, which is Arabic for ‘God is great!’ before the rampage Thursday that also left 30 people wounded.”
As you’ve certainly seen, we have complete coverage of the shooting at Statesman.com and it will be constantly updated today. Also, the Statesman is reporting information on Twitter, @fthoodshootings.
One other article I’d point you to: Victor O’Brien of the Killeen Daily Herald was on post when it was locked down Thursday, giving him a closer look than the rest of the media had.
The FR podcast
I’m skipping a lot of the usual FR bells and whistles today, but I do want to post the podcast I recorded Thursday morning with pollster Daron Shaw of the University of Texas. Shaw helped run the UT/Texas Tribune poll that hit the governor’s race this week.
The good people at UT allowed us to use their studio, so the sound quality is better than usual. We go through some dry-but-important stuff about online polling at the beginning, then get to some great analysis about the state of the race and voters’ concerns. We talk about why no Democratic candidate has emerged, why both nominations remain up for grabs, the number of truly independent voters in the state and the issues that voters say they care about most.
It’s about 28 minutes, and it’s a good one. Download it, listen in the car, in the yard or wherever you have some quiet time this weekend.
In the news
Breaking this morning: U.S. unemployment rate has topped 10 percent for first time in more than 25 years.
“Claiming that Judge Sharon Keller made contradictory statements to two separate courts, the daughter of executed inmate Michael Richard moved Thursday to reopen a federal lawsuit against the state’s highest criminal judge.” Austin American-Statesman
“State Board of Education member Rick Agosto will not seek re-election next year, he said.” Austin American-Statesman
“On Tuesday, the day City Councilman Peter Brown learned that $4 million of his family’s money couldn’t buy a runoff spot in the mayor’s race, another wealthy Houstonian pledged to spend $10 million of his own money to try to win the Democratic nomination for governor. Farouk Shami, who has been publicly flirting with a bid for some time, took the next step in the accepted political ritual by announcing to an Austin Democratic group that he will officially announce Nov. 19 that he is in the race.” Rick Casey
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Gilbert first candidate with platform on gay issues
Will Gilbert force others to the left? … Another delay signaled on health care, possibly stalling Hutchison … Strap your politician into the Texas PoliGraph
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Mostly sunny and mild. High of 77.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it.)
Wednesday highlights and the day ahead
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hank Gilbert unleashed Wednesday a robust proposal package on issues related to gay, bisexual and transgender Texans.
Gilbert called for the state to recognize same-sex civil unions. He also said the state should allow universities to recognize same-sex domestic partnerships, make it easier for transgender Texans to change their gender on birth certificates and drivers’ licenses, toughen anti-discrimination laws and give gay youth the option to use a similar defense as straight youth under “Romeo and Juliet” laws, which essentially say that a teenager who is sexually involved with a slightly younger teenager will not be treated as an adult sex offender. Gilbert also said he wants to end insurance practices that discriminate against gay Texans.
“Just because some people see this as controversial or say that Texas isn’t ready for this is not a reason I can use to justify remaining silent on this issue,” Gilbert said.
How will this play in the primary? Remember that in 2005, every county in Texas except for Travis voted for a constitutional amendment barring gay marriage. (Gilbert isn’t calling for gay marriage, but that’s at least a partial gauge on how voters feel about these issues.) If he can raise enough money to get his message out and make himself somewhat known to Democratic primary voters, his candidacy may provide a good look at just how liberal those voters are.
Gilbert is obviously taking a big risk here among general-election voters, should he become the Democratic nominee. But the more interesting question may be how these positions affect the rest of the Democratic field. Does he force Tom Schieffer, the choice of much of the Democratic establishment, to take positions on these issues that could come back to hurt him in a general election? Maybe Schieffer uses Gilbert to position himself as a middle-of-the-road Democrat (although I’d think his ties to George W. Bush would take care of that).
• Lost a little in all the election news this week: ABC News reported that senior congressional Democrats say they do not expect health-care reform to get done this year. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was somewhat noncommittal himself, although White House spokesman Robert Gibbs did tell Chris Matthews on Wednesday, “This is going to get to the president’s desk before the end of the year.”
OK, so we have some conflicting signals. If the ABC report is correct, then it could be several weeks into 2010 before U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison resigns — if she resigns at all. Remember that Hutchison has said she wants to stay in Washington to fight the Democrats’ health-care push. Even if Hutchison does resign in the early part of the year, the news cycle for at least a few days is going to be eaten up by all of the issues and politics surrounding her resignation.
Hutchison is in a tough spot. Almost as tough as all the people who want her job, and the people who want their jobs and, well, you get the point.
• A number of Texas school districts approved increases to their tax rates in Tuesday’s election. According to TexasISD.com, voters in 26 out of 41 districts approved increases to their tax rates to pay for school operations. In addition, voters approved bond proposals in 17 of 28 districts (in two of those districts, they approved part of a bond package and rejected another part.)
• Want to know whether your favorite politician is speaking the truth on the campaign trail? On our Virtual Capitol site, we’ve added a new feature called the Texas PoliGraph to gauge the relationship between rhetoric and fact on the campaign trail. We will continuously update it through the next year, so be sure to go there frequently.
Stat of the day
In September, the state spent $2 million on overtime for food-stamp eligibility workers, who earn an average salary of $30,321. That month, eligibility staffers, including supervisors — who earn comp time, not paid overtime — put in an extra 227,000 hours. Source: Austin American-Statesman
Poll watch
From Gallup: A majority of Americans now see President Barack Obama as governing from the left. Specifically, 54 percent say his policies as president have been mostly liberal while 34 percent call them mostly moderate. This contrasts with public expectations right after Obama’s election a year ago, when as many expected him to be moderate as to be liberal.
In the news
“When the new head of the agency responsible for the state’s backlogged food stamp applications sent an e-mail to employees asking for feedback about the agency, he got it. About 500 state workers replied to Health and Human Services Executive Commissioner Tom Suehs, telling him about low morale and low pay, poor management, technology problems, insufficient training, long hours away from their families. They wrote about feeling frazzled, crying on the drive to work and actively looking for other jobs.” Austin American-Statesman
“I can’t decide whether Republican Todd Staples lately proved himself the savviest politician in Texas or instead monkeyed with state law in plain view.” Gardner Selby
“Republican Debra Medina says she’ll be the first candidate in the 2010 governor’s race with Spanish-language TV ads.” Austin American-Statesman
“It was a big election night for Republicans overall. But their lone disappointment - the loss of a New York congressional seat in a crossfire between moderates and conservatives - could portend struggles next year for GOP leaders. Channeling the Tea Party-inspired energy is a particular headache for Dallas Rep. Pete Sessions, whose costly effort to keep the New York seat was a casualty of the civil war.” Dallas Morning News
“The University of Houston moved Wednesday to raise its admission standards, one day after voters approved a measure to boost the stature of the university and several other Texas schools.” Houston Chronicle
“The U.S. Department of Education puts the Texas graduation rate at 71.9 percent — ranking the state 36th nationally. That would put the dropout population for each year’s graduating class at roughly 130,000 — or about the size of McAllen. Another estimate, using a formula called the Cumulative Promotion Index, indicates only 64.5 percent graduate in four years.” Texas Tribune
“Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele was doing a victory lap on the morning shows Wednesday after the GOP gubernatorial candidates won in New Jersey and Virginia. ‘Look at the stories we’re talking about today,’ he told CBS’s Harry Smith, ‘and I think it’s about a transcendent party.’ Presumably, the chairman meant that his party is ascendant, meaning on the rise, and not transcendent, meaning beyond the limits of comprehension.” Dana Milbank
“Election Day losses in Virginia and New Jersey have congressional Democrats focused like never before on jobs — their own. While the White House and party leaders are urging calm, Democratic incumbents from red states and Republican-leaning districts are anything but; Tuesday’s statehouse defeats have left them acutely aware that their votes on health care reform and other major Obama initiatives could be career-enders in 2010 or beyond.” Politico
“A ‘debate’ between former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush has been nixed because the promoter overhyped it as a death-match faceoff between the men, The Post has learned.” New York Post
Everything else
Yankees won the World Series, four games to two. Beat the Phillies 7-3 last night.
Rockets lost to the Lakers in overtime Wednesday, 103-102.
Mavs lost in OT to the Hornets, 114-107.
The Cowboys’ Roy Williams sounds like an unhappy camper.
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Breaking down election night
Low turnout in Texas … Strake says Hutchison should stay … An instant Herman classic
Happy birthday to Will Fullerton, who works for the Michael Williams campaign; Richard Hudson, chief of staff to Rep. Mike Conaway; Eddie Solis of the Texas Municipal Retirement System; Jennie Kennedy with the University of North Texas System; and Rep. Lois Kolkhorst.
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Sun with a few scattered clouds. Continued mild with a high of 78.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it — including a Blackberry-friendly version.)
Tuesday highlights and the day ahead
Quite an election night around the country. Every constitutional amendment passes in Texas, Republicans win governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey and the Democrat won that congressional seat in New York.
• Here in Texas, all of the constitutional amendments passed. The amendment that aimed to create more tier one universities in Texas got 56 percent of the vote. Proposition 11, which put limits on the taking of the private property, got 81 percent o the vote. Every proposition got at least 55 percent.
Here’s our story from this morning’s paper.
• Voters in a number of Texas school districts rejected efforts to increase the tax rates for maintenance and operations. A lot of these districts are tiny and don’t have much info up on the Web, but from what I’ve been able to cull from TexasISD.com and various news reports, I’ve found 12 districts that approved these elections and 10 that rejected them. There are another 16 districts out there that aren’t accounted for at this point.
Hard to draw too many conclusions when there are so many unknown results, so I won’t try. Hope to have more on this as the day develops. If you know the results of any of these elections, e-mail me at jembry@statesman.com.
• In Houston, Anise Parker and Gene Locke advanced to a runoff in the race for mayor. Parker got 31 percent of the vote and Locke got 26 percent. But here’s the most interesting paragraph in the Houston Chronicle story: “Although no outcome could qualify as completely unexpected in one of the closest mayoral elections in recent memory, the big surprise of the night was the strong showing by Roy Morales, the race’s only conservative. The retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, who ran with virtually no money and no endorsements compared to his opponents, placed only a few percentage points behind City Councilman Peter Brown, who poured more than $3.2 million of his family fortune into his candidacy.”
• Let’s look at the national scene:
Republican candidates for governor won in New Jersey and Virginia. See the “poll watch” section below for some interesting stats on those.
This Tweet this morning from our own Gov. Rick Perry: “Very well run races focused on smaller government in NJ and VA. Congrats to Christie and McDonnell on well deserved victories.”
Dan Balz has great analysis in the Washington Post: “Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year’s midterm elections.”
In New York, Democrat Bill Owens won a congressional seat over Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate who effectively became the Republican nominee after the anointed Republican nominee dropped out. With 89 percent of the precincts reporting, Owens had 49 percent and Hoffman had 46 percent, according to Politico.
George Stephanopoulas looks at the winners and losers in the New York congressional race.
Mayor Michael Bloomberg won in New York with a surprisingly small share of the vote — 51 percent. (A sign that it was just a bad night to be an incumbent, considering his 20-to-1 spending edge). The New York Times looks at the race. And here’s a fun little fact: For some reason, the person who introduced Bloomberg at his victory party was none other than late-night host Jimmy Fallon.
• And now let’s talk about an election that’s coming up in four months. That would be the Democratic primary for governor here in Texas. The Statesman’s Corrie MacLaggan met yesterday with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Farouk Shami. Here’s her story from this morning’s Statesman.
The news that should cause other Democratic candidates headaches: Shami said he’ll spend $10 million on the primary.
Unfortunately for Corrie, Ken Herman was also there. With his camera. Let’s just say that it’s not every day that a candidate for governor asks a reporter how she cares for her hair (actually, in this state, it’s usually the other way around), but Shami isn’t your ordinary candidate.
Here’s the footage:
• Speaking of the gubernatorial primary, George Strake Jr., a critical player in building the Texas Republican Party, is circulating a letter telling fellow Republicans to ask U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to stay in the Senate and not challenge Perry. He writes, “We took a terrible beating in the 2008 national elections but we have a chance of picking up gains across the board in 2010 if we do not destroy ourselves in bloody and expensive primaries. By Senator Hutchison vacating her U.S. Senate seat and running in the gubernatorial primary, she jeopardizes the Republican majority, taking needed funds from local races in an election year that will determine who writes congressional and legislative district lines.”
• A quick note: I should have noted in Tuesday’s post that it was Quorum Report that first reported that Buddy Winn was planning to challenge Rep. Fred Brown in the Republican primary. My bad.
Poll watch
According to exit polls reported this morning on MSNBC, the winning Republican candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia dominated among independents. In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie got 58 percent of the independent votes, compared to 31 percent for Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine. In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell won 62 percent of independents, compared to 37 percent for Democrat Creigh Deeds.
In Virginia, said MSNBC’s Chuck Todd, “the Obama coalition didn’t show up.”
One other interesting exit poll reported on “Morning Joe” this morning: In New Jersey, 60 percent of voters in an exit poll said President Barack Obama was not a factor in how they voted in the governor’s race. Among those who said he was a factor, half supported Obama and half of them opposed him.
In the news
“IBM Corp.’s failure to protect state information under an $863 million data center consolidation contract has prompted the Texas secretary of state’s office to pull its elections system from the project.” Austin American-Statesman
“Despite a storm of controversy surrounding his shake-up of a state forensic panel, Gov. Rick Perry leads U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison among voters who say they plan to vote in the March Republican primary, according to a new poll.” Austin American-Statesman
“For the $300 million spent on merit pay for teachers over the last three years, Texas was hoping for a big boost in student achievement. But it didn’t happen with the now-defunct program, according to experts hired by the state.” Dallas Morning News
“Reports that Texas has created or saved 19,752 jobs so far with stimulus funding appear to overstate the impact of the program, according to interviews and an analysis of government data.” Dallas Morning News
“The Texas Youth Commission will stop releasing young offenders who are too mentally ill to rehabilitate until the agency is sure they’re receiving proper treatment in the community, officials said Tuesday.” Texas Tribune
Everything else
World Series tonight, Yankees try to close out the Phillies. 7 p.m. on Fox
Mavs beat Utah on Tuesday, 96-85
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Election Day, here and everywhere
You can rewrite the Texas Constitution today … New poll has Perry up 12 on KBH … Movement in House GOP primaries
Stephen F. Austin would have been 216 years old today (assist: General Land Office).
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Bright sunshine. Seasonable high of 77.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it.)
Monday highlights and the day ahead
It’s Election Day. We don’t quite have the sizzle of a race for president or governor, but there’s interesting stuff happening at just about every level of government, and no, I’m not just talking about the school bond election in Zavalla ISD.
Speaking of school districts, that’s an interesting place to start. Remember when the Legislature in 2006 put some pretty tight limits on how much local school boards could raise their tax rates unless they had voter approval? Neither do I. But the ever-helpful Joe Smith over at TexasISD.com does, and he reports that 28 school districts will hold elections today to see if they can increase their tax rates.
Another interesting stat from Joe Smith: The number of school districts rejecting proposed tax increases is on the increase. In 2006, the first year of such elections, 93 percent of them passed, and in 2007, it was 78 percent. Last year it was 60 percent. It will be interesting to see what sort of mood voters are in now that we’ve had more than a full year of economic doom and gloom.
Remember that these elections were key to resolving challenges to the state’s school finance lawsuit. Local school boards would rather not have to go to voters to increase their tax rates — after all, members of the Legislature don’t have to — but this is the system.
In Houston today, voters will start the process of replacing term-limited Mayor Bill White. It’s expected that the top two finishers will advance to a runoff.
Of course we have the constitutional amendments statewide. Will Texas take a big step toward more Tier One universities? Will the property-appraisal system see reforms? Will the proposition on eminent domain pass, even as comprehensive eminent-domain reform waits?
And nationally, there are three key races to watch, and everyone will try to draw way too many conclusions from them. First, there’s the race for governor in Virginia, which the Republican is almost certain to win. Then there is the governor’s race in New Jersey, where there have been conflicting polls. And finally you have that congressional district in New York, where you have Democrat Bill Owens trying to hold off Doug Hoffman, the nominee of the Conservative Party after the Republican nominee dropped out and threw her support behind the Democrat.
Those who are expecting a good day (Republicans) say it’s a referendum on President Barack Obama. Those who do not expect a good day (Democrats) say it’s not. Everyone wants to know whether this is going to be a sign of things to come. Sean Hannity even asked GOP pundit Jeri Thompson (Fred’s wife) that question on Monday. “It definitely may be,” she said. And as Dana Milbank points out in today’s Washington Post, “Hard to argue with a definite maybe.”
• There was some movement Monday in Texas House races. Former Tyler Mayor Joey Seeber, who had been in Austin meeting with leaders of political action committees in August, dropped his GOP primary bid against Rep. Leo Berman.
And Former Brazos County Tax Assessor-Collector Gerald “Buddy” Winn said Monday that he would run in the GOP primary for the seat now held by Rep. Fred Brown, R-College Station, according to the Bryan/College Station Eagle. Brown told the newspaper that he’s unsure whether he will seek re-election.
UPDATE: I should have mentioned that Quorum Report had the news of Winn’s candidacy a month ago.
• Democrat Mark Thompson dropped his bid for governor on Monday, throwing his support to Hank Gilbert, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
• U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s campaign announced Monday a group called “Aggies for Kay,” which includes former Texas A&M System regents, past presidents of the Association of Former Students and past chairmen of the Texas A&M Foundation. Jon Hagler, an investment industry executive and former chairman of the Texas A&M Foundation who is part of Hutchison’s new Aggie coalition, said he’s concerned about Perry’s involvement with the university. Hagler said, “The governor has now appointed every A&M regent, as well as the chancellor of our system. And the compelling common characteristic of our regents is their political support for the governor. The regents have endorsed a structural change in the relationship between the flagship and the system, which is led by the governor’s former chief of staff. Flagship no longer has the autonomy to create its own destiny and manage its own affairs. It has become an institution whose strategy and approach is effectively set in the governor’s office.”
Poll watch
The Texas Tribune launches today with a poll that shows Perry leading Hutchison, 42 percent to 30 percent. Debra Medina comes in at 7 percent. The poll shows nobody gaining much traction on the Democratic side, but Kinky Friedman leading the field.
Democrat Hank Gilbert finished at the bottom of the pack in the poll with 0.3 percent of the vote, and his campaign responded swiftly. In a lengthy statement e-mailed to reporters this morning, Gilbert spokesman Vince Leibowitz said, “It is a complete and total joke. In addition to Hank Gilbert having been left off part of the poll — a fact the Tribune fails to mention but which is clearly mentioned in a footnote of the poll — the company conducting the poll is one that conducts unreliable internet-based polls.”
The poll was conducted Oct. 20-27 in conjunction with the University of Texas. It’s worth noting that it came on the heels of a rough patch of news for Perry, specifically the national spotlight cast on his shakeup of the Forensic Science Commission. And yet it gives Perry the same lead as the last UT poll, conducted during the summer. This must be very discouraging for the Hutchison campaign, which to this point has been much more focused on Perry-bashing than laying out a vision for the state.
The Perry/Hutchison matchup is based on questioning of 357 respondents, and it has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.19 percent. One sign of hope for the Hutchison campaign: Almost one in five respondents — 18 percent — remains undecided.
Said Hutchison spokesman Joe Pounder, “As we said when the last poll came out that showed Kay Bailey Hutchison leading, polls go up and they go down but the only one that matters is on Election Day. Our internals show a completely different race so we are comfortable with where we are. The Tribune has paid for a faulty poll.”
The poll was conducted online, and my experience with the UT poll taken right before the 2008 election was that it was pretty reliable. Here’s the rundown of their questions and answers. And here’s a rundown of the methodology.
(As a side note, congratulations to my many friends at the Tribune on today’s launch of their site. They’ve all worked very hard to get to this point, and that hard work is reflected in their product.)
In the news
“When State Board of Education Member David Bradley had a legal question about investing the Permanent School Fund, his first stop was not the lawyer hired by the board to answer such inquiries. It was Austin lawyer Kevin O’Hanlon.” Austin American-Statesman
“The Texas Medical Association’s political arm, TEXPAC, today announced its endorsement of Gov. Rick Perry’s re-election campaign. The group selected Perry because of his ‘unwavering support and defense of Texas’ medical liability reforms and his efforts to protect the sacred patient-physician bond,’ said Dr. William Fleming III, president of the association. But relations between the doctors and Perry haven’t always been so warm.” Austin American-Statesman
“Texas educators forcibly pinned down students with disabilities more than 18,000 times in the last school year, sometimes injuring them in the process.” Texas Tribune
“Unlike the complicated and controversial man, lawyer John O’Quinn’s will is quite simple — he’s leaving his riches to the charitable foundation that bears his name.” Houston Chronicle
“Houston, once considered the nation’s capital of dirty air, is on the verge of meeting federal limits for smog for the first time.” Houston Chronicle
“Gov. Rick Perry on Monday bashed Washington-style health care fixes, but he wouldn’t rule out taking federal incentives for insuring more people if Congress offers them.” Associated Press
“More than 10,000 people turned out Monday night for a North Houston Tea Party Patriots gathering to protest proposed health care reform and what they called big government spending and overzealous government leadership, according to preliminary attendance figures.” Houston Chronicle
“On Monday, the eve of Election Day, Bexar County’s elections chief gloomily predicted that fewer than one of every 20 registered voters will have cast ballots by the time polls close tonight. The early voting numbers, a strong indicator of overall turnout, were paltry.” San Antonio Express-News
Everything else
Phillies force a World Series game six, back in New York, after beating the Yankees 8-6. Game six will be Wednesday.
Great road win for the Rockets on Monday — 113-96 against Utah.
New Orleans Saints’ win on Monday Night Football gave them a 7-0 start, the best ever in franchise history. The Saints and Colts are the only unbeaten teams left in the NFL.
Ashlee Simpson-Wentz is getting the boot from “Melrose Place,” prompting big sister Jessica to unleash a mini-tirade on Twitter. Jessica: “Who writes this crap? i have had bad scripts to work with, but this? Thank God my sister is amazing and got you some press.”
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The March endangered list
Five House members who may lose their primaries … DMN chides Hutchison for her light-on-issues campaign … Rasmussen shows Obama slipping
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Plenty of sun with seasonable temperatures. Highs around 76.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it, including an easier-to-read version for mobile devices.)
The March endangered list
We kick things off this morning with my second list of the Texas House members who are most likely to lose their re-election bids next year. But so as to not confuse things too much, I’ve decided to focus the list on those who are in the most trouble in the March primaries. Once we get past March, I’ll turn to the general election, where, frankly, I think things will be a little more interesting this year.
I’ll count them down from least to most in danger. If you disagree, comment away.
(5) Rep. Leo Berman, R-Tyler. Berman is facing a challenge from former Tyler Mayor Joey Seeber. The former mayor must be taken seriously, but there’s not much activity from his campaign yet to discern from here. (UPDATE: Seeber dropped his bid today. So much for that.)
(4) Rep. Tara Rios Ybarra, D-South Padre Island. She captured this seat in the 2008 primary. Some of the local press published a story in August that took an unusual interest in the details of her personal life, although it wasn’t entirely personal — it involved a major campaign donor. Tough to know what effect that will have. J.M. Lozano is running against her in the primary. But as Paul Burka pointed out this year, he’s from the north end of the district, and the bulk of the votes are on the south end, and Rios Ybarra is from there. Plus, she’s been working all ends of the district very aggressively.
(3) Rep. Allen Fletcher, R-Tomball. Former Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale is considering trying to recapture the seat he lost to Fletcher in the 2008 GOP primary. Fletcher won that race by 800 votes (52 percent to 48 percent). But since then, Fletcher has been named one of the 10 worst legislators by Texas Monthly, and he did little to impress his colleagues in his first session. Here’s what the magazine said when it put the frehsman lawmaker on its list of the worst: “There are two things that even the rawest rookie must not do. One is to bring shame upon the body. This Fletcher did when he and several business associates became ensnared in a stock-manipulation investigation initiated by the Harris County district attorney’s office, which later turned the probe over to the U.S. Department of Justice. A federal complaint alleged that press releases quoting Fletcher and touting his political prominence had helped inflate the value of the stocks that were involved. (No charges are pending in the case.)”
(2) Rep. Al Edwards, D-Houston. Edwards lost his seat to Boris Miles in the 2006 primary, but thanks to consistently bizarre behavior from Miles, he was able to get it back in 2008. Now Edwards faces a challenge from Billy Briscoe, a young lawyer. Was Edwards’ comfortable win in 2008 a product of a better campaign and newfound affection in the district for him, or just a repudiation of Miles? We’ll see.
(1) Rep. Terri Hodge, D-Dallas. A couple of people I trust on these matters say I may have underestimated her popularity last month when I said she was the most endangered incumbent — and the idea that she’s far from dead was reinforced by Gromer Jeffers’ story in the Dallas Morning News on Sunday. Hodge has the backing of U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson and County Commissioner John Wiley Price. Still, she is awaiting trial on bribery charges — her trial is set for just after the primary — and the investigation that ensnared her has generated huge headlines for months. Her opponent, lawyer Eric Johnson, is working the district hard, has had a very successful start to his fundraising and has just captured the backing of District Attorney Craig Watkins.
Poll watch
From Rasmussen: “In October, for the third straight month, 39 percent Strongly Disapproved of the president’s performance. The number who Strongly Approved fell two percentage points to 29 percent, the president’s lowest full-month total to date. That leads to a Presidential Approval Index rating of -10, also a new low for Obama. Also in October, the president’s total approval slipped a point to 48 percent. His total disapproval remained stable at 51 percent.
Texas Longhorns moved back into the No. 2 spot in the AP football poll.
In the news
“For Texas’ charter schools to secure permanent homes, they have long relied on friendly financial backers to buy into the education experiment. Someday soon, one of those backers might be the state’s 155-year-old public school endowment. The State Board of Education, which oversees the $22 billion Permanent School Fund, is looking into targeting a small portion of that fund to build or finance charter school classrooms and facilities.” Austin American-Statesman
“A New York finance company that lent state Rep. David Leibowitz millions of dollars for his small law practice claims the legislator failed to make payments that rose to $75,000 a month and has defaulted on $5.5 million in debt.” San Antonio Express-News
“If you like Tuesday’s constitutional amendments election, you might just love initiative and referendum. Or you may find I&R a nightmare.” Peggy Fikac
“”The Hutchison campaign has said for weeks that the senator plans a ‘rollout’ of policy positions, but she doesn’t appear ready to begin. The primary election is in four months. What’s the holdup?” Dallas Morning News editorial
“If politics is sometimes a game of musical chairs, then this is the quiet moment before the song starts.” Dallas Morning News
“Texas is among the first states to toughen its standards for colleges of education and other teacher-training programs amid criticism that too many are ‘cash cows’ that produce weak instructors.” Houston Chronicle
“After years of criticism that congressional lawmakers were reluctant to investigate their colleagues, the disclosure in recent days of a sensitive document from the House ethics committee offers the contradictory portrait of a panel actively pursuing a range of probes even as Democrats under scrutiny remain in positions of power. The 22-page document revealed that the ethics committee, as of late July, was looking into the activities of at least 19 lawmakers, including reviews of home mortgages and interviews about corporate-backed trips for members of Congress to Caribbean resorts.” Washington Post
“Fearful that the party had almost no chance of winning the Nov. 3 New York special election after Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava abruptly announced Saturday that she was dropping out, high-ranking national Democrats immediately began working to secure her endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens, POLITICO has learned. On Sunday afternoon, their vigorous efforts paid off.” Politico
“One year after the election of President Obama, a handful of off-year political contests — including governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia and a Congressional race in upstate New York — offer some clues about how Americans are viewing Mr. Obama, as well as an early measure of the landscape for next year’s midterm elections.” New York Times
Everything else
Texans move to 5-3 with a 31-10 pounding of Buffalo.
Cowboys move to 5-2, beat the Seahawks 38-17.
New BCS poll: 1.Florida 2.Texas 3.Alabama 4.Iowa 5. Cincinnati
Yankees beat the Phillies 7-4 to take a 3-1 series lead. New York will try to end the series tonight, 7 p.m. on Fox.
Meanwhile, it will be an NFC South battle tonight on Monday Night Football — the unbeaten Saints take on Atlanta.
Rolling Stone has produced a list of the 500 greatest songs of all time. Bob Dylan’s “Like a Rolling Stone” is at the top of the list.
Tops at the weekend box office: “Michael Jackson’s This Is It,” followed by “Paranormal Activity” and “Law Abiding Citizen.”
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Bolton draws GOP challenger
Can Republicans win a seat in Travis County? … Gilbert talks transportation … Selby steps into the Texas Political Parlor
Happy birthday to Republican operative Dave Beckwith.
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Lingering morning clouds and scattered showers followed by gradual clearing. Breezy and cooler with a high around 65.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it.)
Thursday highlights and the day ahead
Republican Paul Workman, founder of Austin-based Workman Commercial Construction, will announce today that he’ll challenge second-term Rep. Valinda Bolton, D-Austin, in a House seat that’s based in southwest Travis County.
An Aggie, Workman has been active in the Associated General Contractors of Texas for several years.
Republicans are confident about their chances of defeating Bolton. Her seat, previously held by GOP Rep. Terry Keel, was the last one in Travis County to turn from red to blue. Bolton got 51.2 percent of the vote in 2008 against Republican Donna Keel. That’s a small margin in a strong Democratic year, although some of Keel’s success could be attributed to the strength of her family’s name in that part of the county.
Democrats beat Republicans up and down the ballot in Keel’s district in 2008. President Barack Obama won the district by 10 points, but Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega edged out Republican Sen. John Cornyn by a little more than a point, 48.6 percent to 47.4 percent. As is often the case in close House races, Republican success could depend on whether a Libertarian runs — the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate got 4.1 percent of the vote in Bolton’s district in the 2008 U.S. Senate race, and conventional wisdom says Libertarians take more votes from Republicans than Democrats.
Republican operatives see Bolton’s as one of a number of seats where a national surge of Republican support could push their candidates over the top, just as some Democratic candidates were helped by anti-Bush sentiment in 2006 and 2008. But Democrats are on an incredible winning streak in Travis County, so much so that it spilled over into Williamson County last year, so Bolton will be tough to beat.
• Speaking of House races, I’m working on an updated list of the most vulnerable House incumbents as part of Monday’s post. So if you have an argument to make, e-mail me at jembry@statesman.com or make your case in the comments section. I will say there are some interesting races brewing out there that I overlooked with my initial list earlier this month.
• Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hank Gilbert rolled out his transportation plan on Thursday. His plan includes an 8-cent increase in the gas tax (plus an effort to tie gas taxes to inflation), a ban on all future toll roads unless they are approved by voters in major metropolitan areas and a reworked Texas Transportation Commission of 14 elected members.
The level of detail in Gilbert’s plan impressed Dallas Morning News editorial writer Rodger Jones, who wrote, “At least Gilbert has the guts to own up to the cost of building and maintaining a first-class transportation system. Tom Schieffer came out critical of an 8-cent increase today but neglected to make clear that he was responding to his Democratic rival. We have yet to see a fleshed-out Schieffer plan, however.” U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison also hasn’t told voters much about how she’d address the state’s transportation woes.
• The FR podcast will be back very soon, but in the meantime, check out the latest edition of the Texas Political Parlor. The Statesman’s W. Gardner Selby joins the KUT crew to discuss the new GOP state party chair, Tuesday’s constitutional election and a Texas congressman talking about just how talkative he is.
Poll watch
From Fox News: “Nearly half of Americans — 48 percent — say President Obama is meeting or exceeding expectations, down from 66 percent who thought so in March. At the same time, nearly half — 47 percent — say he is falling below their expectations — twice the number (23 percent) who thought his performance was sub par when polled in March 2009. Forty-four percent of Americans say Obama is keeping more promises than he is breaking. Almost as many — 39 percent — think the president is breaking more promises.”
From Gallup: “About a year after Obama’s election, optimism that a solution to the country’s race problem will eventually be worked out has settled back down to 56%. This certainly remains higher than in a number of previous years, particularly at points in the 1990s. But the current reading is not significantly improved from the sentiment that prevailed in more recent years prior to Obama’s election. Blacks continue to give much more negative responses to this question than do whites. The majority of whites are optimistic that a solution will eventually be worked out; the majority of blacks disagree.”
In the news
“A two-story addition should be built to the north of the arson-gutted Texas Governor’s Mansion to make the home “more livable” for the state’s first families and add much-needed space, according to new details of the showcase project revealed Thursday.” Austin American-Statesman
“Higher education enrollment in Texas rose 9 percent, to 1.4 million students, in the past year, with community colleges accounting for 75 percent of that increase, according to preliminary figures released by the state Thursday.” Austin American-Statesman
“In August, Perry was given the ‘Defender of Jerusalem’ award. So Perry and his wife flew first class to Israel at more than $5,000 per ticket. The governor’s security detail of four Department of Public Safety (DPS) officers was also along for the trip. They all took the 7,000 mile journey to accept the award at a time when the governor was asking everyone else in state government to cut back on travel. During a speech in Houston, Perry directed state agencies to curtail taxpayer funded travel.’” KTVT
“House ethics investigators have been scrutinizing the activities of more than 30 lawmakers and several aides in inquiries about issues including defense lobbying and corporate influence peddling, according to a confidential House ethics committee report prepared in July.” Washington Post
Everything else
Yankees beat the Phillies, 3-1, to even up the World Series at a game apiece. Interesting stat from “Mike and Mike” on ESPN2 this morning: When the World Series is tied at 1-1, the team that wins game three has won 36 out of 51 times. Game three is 7 p.m. Saturday on Fox.
Spurs lost to the Bulls, 92-85.
Great sports weekend on the way — World Series, UT vs. Oklahoma State, Favre returns to Green Bay and the Texans will beat Buffalo to improve to 5-3, which will be their best record ever after eight games.
Jessica Simpson says she’s looking for an “intellectual” man.
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Perry picks up builders’ backing
Another trade group for Perry … Barbour helps him, also … Branch pulls out of AG race he was never in
Happy birthday to Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones and Jennifer Harris (the one who works for Michael Williams).
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Occasional rain and thunderstorms likely with a cold front crossing the region. Early highs in the 70s falling to the 50s later in the day.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com to get a link to First Reading as soon as I post it.)
Wednesday highlights and the day ahead
Gov. Rick Perry today will pick up the endorsement of the Texas Association of Builders. Then he will speak to the group.
He will also hold fundraisers today with Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who is chairman of the Republican Governors Association — a job that Perry used to hold. Barbour will appear with Perry at an event in Fredericksburg and two in the Dallas area.
• And speaking of the Dallas area, I reported on Postcards on Wednesday night that Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, has opted to run for re-election to the Texas House instead of running for attorney general.
While Supreme Court Justice Dale Wainright may jump in at some point, this means former solicitor general Ted Cruz is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for attorney general.
Yes, Attorney General Greg Abbott hasn’t officially said he’s going anywhere. But once the smoke clears, we expect Kay Bailey Hutchison to have resigned from the U.S. Senate, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to be seeking her Senate seat and Abbott to be running for lieutenant governor.
When all of this plays out, of course, depends on when Hutchison resigns, or if she resigns. In a press release that will be distributed today, Branch says of a statewide run, “While the prospects for a successful run looked good, with only a month to go now until filing, the prospect of an open seat appears unlikely.”
Read: Branch doesn’t think that Hutchison will resign before the end of the filing period. That could well be true, in which case the State Republican Executive Committee could ultimately pick the nominees for attorney general and lieutenant governor.
Cruz has been courting SREC members.
I’m told that Branch isn’t pulling a Dewhurst here (where a politician says he’s running for one thing but everyone expects that he’s really biding his time until the job he really wants comes available). Branch really isn’t going to run for attorney general this time.
• Ken Herman recently saw Kinky Friedman at a book signing in San Antonio. And he was skeptical:
Here is Herman’s column on the Friedman campaign.
Stat of the day
Texas lost more jobs in September (44,700) than California (39,300) and Michigan (21,500). The only state that lost more than Texas that month was New York. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Poll watch
A new poll from CNN shows Mike Huckabee leading the prospective GOP field of presidential candidates in 2012 among Republicans, followed by Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty in a distant fourth.
And congratulations (I think?) to Gov. Rick Perry, voted the most overrated governor in an online, completely non-scientific survey conducted by Chris Cilizza’s excellent Washington Post blog, the Fix. Perry edged out Florida’s Charlie Crist.
In the news
“As Texas begins hiring hundreds of food stamp workers to help erase an application backlog that has left families waiting months for aid, no one expects the problems to disappear any time soon. The new state workers are entering a system in crisis. They’ll have far fewer experienced colleagues than they would have five years ago. Training is shorter. Mentoring has mostly fallen by the wayside. And employees are working an average of 13 hours of overtime per week — which, in some cases, is mandatory.” Austin American-Statesman
“Former Vice President Dick Cheney will help U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison next month in her bid to unseat a fellow Republican, Gov. Rick Perry.” Austin American-Statesman
“The car was headed off a cliff with Republican powerhouse Cathie Adams of Dallas destined for 13 broken ribs and months of little activity. Boy, did she recover.” Gardner Selby
“Led by former Republican leader Dick Armey, the conservative group FreedomWorks has attacked the Washington establishment this year, challenging bailouts, health care legislation and other policies that violate the group’s free-market ideology. But for more than six years, FreedomWorks’ own chairman flourished at the heart of that establishment, earning $750,000 a year to lobby for banks, green-energy producers and companies trying to shape the stimulus package that FreedomWorks opposed.” Dallas Morning News
“About 45,000 Texans who have exhausted their unemployment insurance payments — or soon will see them run out — may tap additional benefits for up to seven more weeks.” Houston Chronicle
“When we asked Gov. Rick Perry’s press office earlier this month whether or not the governor had asked Austin Sen. Kirk WatÂson to consider 3rd Court of Appeals Justice Jan Patterson for possible appointment to Travis County’s 353rd Civil District Court bench, we were told by spokesman Chris Cutrone on Oct. 9 that the Chronicle would have to file an open records request for that information; he could not answer the question, he said, but filing a request for records would provide a ‘clearer picture’ about what transpired. So we did. That same evening. And on Oct. 21, we got our answer in an e-mail: ‘After reviewing our records,’ Mark Adams, of Perry’s general counsel office, wrote, ‘we have determined that the Office of the GoverÂnor has no documents responsive to your request.’” Austin Chronicle
Everything else
The Phillies beat the Yankees in the first game of the World Series, 6-1.
Spurs beat New Orleans, 113-96.
Rockets beat Golden State, 108-107.
Tennessee Titans coach Jeff Fisher will announce today whether his starting quarterback this week will be Kerry Collins or Vince Young. Pick your poison, Tennessee fans.
Corey Feldman is getting a divorce.
My lasting impression of Vegas from the long weekend: A newly minted bride and groom, likely born during or after Reagan’s second term, walking through Harrah’s Casino looking for the Toby Keith theme restaurant.
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Fact-checking Perry’s CNBC claims on taxes
Revised history on the revised franchise tax … Group that condemned Hutchison now praises her … Videos, we’ve got videos
Happy early birthday (Saturday) to consultant Luke Legate.
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Mostly sunny and comfortably mild. High of 73.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it.)
Thursday highlights and the day ahead
Gov. Rick Perry went on CNBC’s “Kudlow Report” on Thursday and was asked a series of questions about the state’s tax structure.
Here’s the full segment, or at least as much as CNBC posted on the Web:
Perry made a couple of claims that are worth revisiting.
As Perry and host Larry Kudlow were discussing the state’s lack of a personal income tax, Kudlow asked him about taxes on business. Kudlow said, “You do have corporate revenue taxes as far as I know and they have been raised.”
Perry said, “They have not been raised. As a matter of fact, we lowered them in 2006, it was a 4 and a half percent rate on our franchise tax, we moved it down to 1 percent. So I hate to disagree with you there. You know for a fact that Texas is a low-tax state.”
When Perry and the Legislature came up with a new franchise tax in 2006 to offset cuts in school property taxes, sure, the rate lowered. But that rate was assessed on something entirely different under the new tax. The old franchise tax captured 4.5 percent of earned surplus (also known as profit). The new tax captures 1 percent of total revenue minus the cost of goods sold or minus total compensation.
The point of all that was that the Legislature didn’t simply lower the rate of the tax, which is a conclusion one could draw from Perry’s comments.
Perhaps the more significant change in 2006 was that the new franchise tax was applied to many more businesses than the old loophole-ridden franchise tax. Using the projections that were in play at the time, the new tax was created so that businesses would pay, in total, $3.39 billion more per year in franchise taxes, because many businesses had been paying nothing under the old one.
That’s a large number, but it can’t be looked at in a vacuum. Because while franchise taxes went up by $3.39 billion (according to the projections at the time), property taxes on businesses went down $3.04 billion, leaving a relatively small net tax increase on businesses. And here’s the most important piece — it was passed in order to give homeowners an annual property-tax savings of $2.79 billion per year.
Here’s one other statement from Perry’s interview Thursday that’s worth revisiting: He said that in 2006, “we cut our property taxes by one-third.” He then repeated it a few seconds later.
That’s a little too simple a way of putting it. The state cut tax rates on school district operations by one-third, but that didn’t affect other aspects of property-tax bills, such as county and city taxes and taxes levied (with voter approval) to build more schools. And the one-third cut hasn’t fully held up because school districts have had to increase their tax rates to pay for operations. Plus there is the issue of rising appraisals, which Perry said the Legislature needs to address.
The Hutchison campaign put out information last night saying how much state tax collections have increased over the last couple of years. But what the campaign didn’t point out is those state taxes have gone up in order to make possible a larger cut in local property taxes.
I realize it probably seems like we’re a little too fixated on that 2006 special session here at FR World Headquarters. But it’s clear that in this Republican primary, we’re going to continue to return to the question of whether the Legislature cut taxes or raised them in 2006. The overall answer is that, taken on the whole, taxes were cut. It’s why we have a structural deficit. But obviously the debate can be sliced any number of ways.
• A few videos have piled up over the last couple of days. First, from the Perry people, Hutchison and the financial rescue plan:
The Hutchison campaign on on Perry’s fundraising ethics:
And everyone please welcome to the debate the Texas Democratic Party. Here’s their look at what they describe as Perry failures:
• A day after naming her “porker of the month” for her many earmark requests, Citizens Against Government Waste praised Hutchison for fighting cap-and-trade legislation with Sen. Kit Bond of Missouri. “Senators Hutchison and Bond should be commended for exposing the true costs of climate-change legislation,” the group said in a letter to senators.
• Todd Gillman with the Dallas Morning News in Washington got the big-time brush-off from Hutchison a couple of days ago.
• Programming note: For at least the first few days of next week, perhaps the whole week, I will be out of pocket and won’t be posting FR. Check back here Thursday to see if I’m back up. Sorry bout that, but I’m taking a few days off to visit a very special place.
Poll watch
From the Associated Press: “The number of Americans who believe there is solid evidence that the Earth is warming because of pollution is at its lowest point in three years, according to a survey released Thursday. The poll of 1,500 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found that only 57 percent believe there is strong scientific evidence that the Earth has gotten warmer over the past few decades, and as a result, people are viewing the problem as less serious. That’s down from 77 percent in 2006.”
Gallup says President Obama’s approval rating fell 9 points — an unusually large drop — during the second and third quarters of his time in office.
Countdown
41 days until the filing period begins.
73 days until the filing period ends.
116 days until early voting begins.
130 days until the March 2 primary.
In the news
“It’s time for our periodic live look-in at the state of play in the 2010 elections. Today’s update comes with a special bonus for Democrats who stay tuned to the bottom of the page. At no additional charge, I will tell you how to make Republicans spend millions of dollars they don’t want to spend. You like to make Republicans spend their money, don’t you? Sure you do. Stay tuned.” Ken Herman
“Gov. Rick Perry says he’s OK with his re-election campaign getting help from the head of the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission, who solicited donations from the owners of the bars and restaurants his agency regulates.” Associated Press
“Proposition 11 has sparked a fundamental, statewide debate. It’s between those who hate eminent domain and those who hate it even more.” San Antonio Express-News
“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is leaning toward putting a public insurance option in the Senate health reform bill — a signal that Reid increasingly believes he can get the votes needed for a plan that would allow states to opt out of the program, senators said Thursday.” Politico
Everything else
Angels beat the Yankees on Thursday to force a game six, Saturday at 7 p.m. on Fox.
Magic Johnson says in a new book that he and Larry Bird helped write that he lobbied to keep Isaiah Thomas off of the original “Dream Team.” Thomas says he’s hurt by the revelation.
This weekend is the Austin Film Festival. Our great team at austin360.com has compiled some of the highlights.
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No First Reading today
I’ll be back on Friday.
Happy birthday to KXAN’s Jenny Hoff!
Also, please check out our Virtual Capitol page page for blogs, stories, today’s Selby column and other good stuff.
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Hutchison hits back on earmarks
Debate continues over earmarks … Fault lines in battle for GOP chair … A&M contacted Perry about president’s job
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Cloudy with rain developing. Breezy and mild with highs around 75.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it.)
Tuesday highlights and the day ahead
The whole issue of earmarks — taxpayer-funded projects often handed out based on congressional influence rather than demonstrated need — in many ways fits perfectly into Gov. Rick Perry’s campaign playbook as he tries to fend off a challenge from U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. When members of Team Perry talk about earmarks, they not only get to remind voters that Hutchison’s day job is in Washington, but they also get to make the debate about spending. Or, as they’d prefer we all call it, out-of-control spending.
But while it’s probably not her favorite topic, Hutchison hasn’t sidestepped the earmarks issue. Her claim has been that there is a certain amount of taxpayer dollars out there that’s going to get spent somewhere, and she’s been working to bring that money to Texas instead of allowing it to go to other states. And, she says, she doesn’t just dream up the projects she seeks, but rather responds to requests from local officials around the state.
The Perry campaign has been trying to draw attention this week to the fact that Citizens Against Government Waste has just named Hutchison “porker of the month” for her vast earmark requests. But Hutchison hit back Tuesday with some evidence that some earmarks sit just fine with the state government that Perry leads.
Let’s turn first to the state’s Office of State-Federal Relations and its strategic plan for budget years 2007-2011, published in July 2006. Among its recent accomplishments, the group brags that “OSFR and TXDOT worked closely together to secure over $669 million in highway earmarks for the state, $78 million in bus and bus facility earmarks, and $505 million in New Starts transit earmarks in the five-year surface transportation bill.”
The OSFR’s advisory board at the time: Speaker Tom Craddick, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Perry.
The Hutchison campaign also produced two letters — one written in March 2003 and one written in February 2004 — in which the executive director of the Texas Department of Transportation submitted earmark requests to Hutchison. “Your efforts to earmark funding for any of the projects included among these recommendations will bring us closer to realizing our goal to maximize federal transportation funding for Texas,” executive director Michael Behrens wrote in the 2003 letter. And in the 2004 letter, Behrens wrote, “The Texas Department of Transportation is eager to work with you and your staff to promote your active involvement in providing additional federal funding for Texas transportation projects.”
When I wrote a story for the Statesman about Hutchison’s earmarking ways last month, Perry spokesman Mark Miner stopped short of saying Hutchison should not be requesting earmarks. He said it was about setting priorities.
• Gardner Selby wrote on the Postcards blog Tuesday about some fighting breaking out in the race for interim chair of the Texas Republican Party. Selby wrote, “Cannons are suddenly roaring in a Republican Party of Texas internal fight over who should be elected Saturday as the party’s interim chairwoman, succeeding Tina Benkiser, who recently resigned to become an adviser in Gov. Rick Perry’s campaign. Candidate Cathie Adams of Dallas, who heads the Texas Eagle Forum, was recently taken to task in an e-mail sent members of the decisive 62-member State Republican Executive Committee. The e-mail, fetchable at the end of this blog, largely questions Adams’ past opposition to a tort-reform ballot proposal.”
• Here’s something interesting from the Battalion, the student newspaper at Texas A&M: Neither Perry nor Defense Secretary Robert Gates is under consideration to be the university’s next president (Gates previously held the job). But the newspaper reports that both were contacted about the job.
Poll watch
Washington Post/ABC News: A majority of Americans — 63 percent — say the Obama administration does not have a clear plan for dealing with the problems in Afghanistan, even though 57 percent of Americans approve of how Obama is carrying out his role as commander in chief. The public is nearly split down the middle on whether Obama should send 40,000 more troops in.
From CNN: “For the first time since he took over in the White House, Americans don’t see eye to eye with President Barack Obama on the important issues, according to a new national poll. But the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey does indicate that a majority approve of how Obama’s handling his duties as president. According to the poll, which was released Tuesday, 48 percent of people questioned say that they agree with Obama on the issues that matter most to them, with 51 percent saying no. That’s a switch from April, when 57 percent said they agreed with the president on important issues, with 41 percent disagreeing.”
Countdown
43 days until the filing period begins.
75 days until the filing period ends.
118 days until early voting begins.
132 days until the March 2 primary.
In the news
“When asked today whether he is considering a moratorium on capital punishment, Perry said that ‘our process works and I don’t see anything out there that would merit calling for a moratorium on the Texas death penalty.’” Austin American-Statesman
“Rising unemployment led to 396,900 Texas adults losing their health insurance between January and August, according to a new report from an advocacy group.” Austin American-Statesman
“Texans had less access to the swine flu vaccine last week than residents of all but one other state, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Federal officials said the explanation is simple: Texas got fewer doses because it asked for less than other states.” Dallas Morning News
“Well, what do you know? A real, live idea has emerged in our governor’s race. Instead of the hourly whack-the-opponent press releases that come from each side, Gov. Rick Perry announced Thursday his plan to increase the number of T-Stem academies in Texas.” William McKenzie
Everything else
Yankees beat the Angels 10-1 on Wednesday to take a 3-1 lead in the American League Championship Series. Game five is Thursday.
Phillies will try to finish off the Dodgers tonight at 7:07 p.m. on TBS.
Kevin Durant returned to the Erwin Center on Tuesday, scoring 23 points as his Oklahoma City Thunder fell in a preseason game to the Spurs. Writes Cedric Golden, “It didn’t really matter that the Spurs won 119-102 and it didn’t matter that that split between Durant fans and Spurs fans was more Spur than KD. What mattered is Durant’s college fans got a chance to see him doing his thing against real pros.”
Sarah Palin will go on “Oprah” next month.
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Keel won’t challenge Bolton again
Republican nominee in 2008 opts not to seek Travis County seat … Homer draws a GOP challenger, as expected … Hutchison gets award she probably didn’t want
Austin weather: Mostly cloudy skies, high of 82. Rain likely coming Wednesday.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it.)
Monday highlights and the day ahead
Republican Donna Keel, who lost her 2008 bid to unseat Rep. Valinda Bolton, D-Austin, says she won’t run this cycle.
Keel wrote to supporters in an e-mail Sunday evening, “I appreciate everyone’s patience as I wrestled with the decision of whether or not to file for District 47 State Representative. A variety of circumstances have finally led me to conclude that this is not the right time for me to run again. I look forward to supporting whoever the Republican nominee is.”
No clear front-runner for the GOP nomination has emerged.
Keel got 48.8 percent of the vote in 2008, which, nationally, was a very strong year for Democrats. Some Republicans believe that this is just the kind of seat that can switch to the GOP column now that the national mood appears to be more favorable to Republicans. (Two important caveats: We don’t know how the whole anti-incumbent thing plays out in Texas, where Republicans are in charge, and we don’t know what the national mood will be a year from now.)
Anyway, expect Republicans to make a big push for Bolton’s southwest Travis County seat if they can find the right candidate.
• CORRECTED: Erwin Cain, chairman of the Hopkins County Republican Party, is planning to challenge Rep. Mark Homer, D-Paris. Harvey Kronberg reported Monday. Homer’s GOP challenger got 48.2 percent in 2008.
(Earlier I said Cain would challenge Chuck Hopson. My bad.)
• Republican James Bernsen confirms that he is no longer seeking the GOP nomination to challenge Rep. Diana Maldonado, D-Round Rock. Bernsen is endorsing Republican Larry Gonzales for the seat.
As an aside — if you know of, or are working for, someone running for the Legislature in any part of the state, please send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com .
• U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison has been named “porker of the month” by Citizens Against Government Waste. The group chided her for requesting, “149 projects worth $1.6 billion for authorization and appropriations bills for fiscal year 2010.”
• Democrat Juan Escobar, who lost his House seat last year to Rep. Tara Rios Ybarra, is now raising money for a 2010 run for county judge in Kleberg County.
Poll watch
Overall, 45 percent of Americans favor the broad outlines of the health-care proposals now moving in Congress, while 48 percent are opposed, about the same division that existed in August. Among independents, 52 percent are against the proposals and 42 percent favor them. But among all voters, a growing majority of Americans support the so-called public option. And while approval of President Barack Obama’s handling of the issue is growing among independents, it’s shrinking among Democrats. Source: Washington Post/ABC News
Rasmussen Reports: Among likely GOP primary voters, Sarah Palin trails Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee by wide margins in hypothetical 2012 matchups.
Obama approve/disapprove: 49/50, according to Rasmussen. Gallup says it’s 51/42.
Countdown
44 days until the filing period begins.
76 days until the filing period ends.
119 days until early voting begins.
133 days until the March 2 primary.
In the news
” What is Rick Perry doing? That’s the question of the day in Texas politics. The governor largely has led Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in their GOP gubernatorial race, but his repeated strongman tactics have folks scratching their heads.” William McKenzie
“A particularly hearty chain e-mail warning against two property tax-related constitutional amendments has been breeding in inboxes across the state as polls open for early voting.” Lisa Falkenberg
“The Perry camp has a lot of very savvy folks who have run a lot of successful races, but this is the first time they have had to deal with a candidate who has lost his discipline.” Paul Burka
“Questions about whether Gov. Rick Perry allowed the execution of a man some arson experts say may have been innocent, and then hindered an investigation into the evidence, continue to reverberate across Texas, where issues surrounding capital punishment have rarely stirred such controversy.” New York Times
“Convinced that Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) is on the ropes because of a tangle of ethical issues, House GOP leaders are debating whether to aggressively press for his removal as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee or try to drag out the controversy as long as possible for maximum political advantage.” Politico
“A group of liberal activists called the Yes Men made up a Web site (http://chamber-of-commerce.us instead of the real http://uschamber.com) and e-mailed fake news releases announcing that the business lobby had suddenly changed its view on global warming. It used a bogus name to rent a room at the National Press Club and stuck the Chamber’s logo on a lectern as it made the phony announcement to a group of reporters — some actors and some real.” Dana Milbank
Everything else
Dodgers’ closer Jonathan Broxton couldn’t finish out the Phillies on Monday — Jimmy Rollins had a dramatic, two-run, game-winning hit in the ninth to give the Phillies a 5-4 win and a commanding 3-1 lead in the National League Championship Series.
Angels showed some life Monday, beat the Yankees to trim New York’s lead to 2-1 in the ALCS. Game four is at 7 p.m. tonight on Fox.
How about those Denver Broncos? They beat the Chargers on the road Monday to improve their record to 6-0.
Snoop Dogg turns 37 today.
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Latest comments
The only real choice for our next Governor is “Kinky Friedman” Bottom Line……..Kay Bailey and Rick Perry are conjoined at the “special interest hip”, so to speak. BTW this Robert Davis fellow has forgotten that “Free
... read the full comment by onetodo | Comment on Gov candidates hit the airwaves Read Gov candidates hit the airwaves
Jason - You should do a better job of fact checking.
Indeed Shami is Muslim, He is the son of Sheikh Mohammad from Beit Ur in Palestine. His father was a “freedom fighter” against the British /Israeli occupation in 1935. His mother
... read the full comment by Crazy Saint | Comment on Gov candidates hit the airwaves Read Gov candidates hit the airwaves
Yeah, right where Reagan’s were in his first term.
... read the full comment by Brown Bess | Comment on Gov candidates hit the airwaves Read Gov candidates hit the airwaves
Hey Embry. No comment on the latest Gallup daily tracking poll. For the first time EVER Obama is less than 50% approval. What do you think about that?? You and your socialist reporters cannot cover for him anymore? You can write all the biased articles
... read the full comment by Jerry | Comment on Gov candidates hit the airwaves Read Gov candidates hit the airwaves
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