When a recovery doesn't look — or feel — like a recovery, or what does the CFL have to do with today's economy?

While we have not heard the official word yet, it seems likely that the Great Recession is history. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a recent public speech at the Brookings Institute said it was "very likely" that the recession was over.

In today's parlance, someone should be saying, "Wait for it," because those looking for broad, consistent signs of recovery will likely find themselves waiting. Housing is still weak. Auto sales have collapsed to pre-clunker levels. Consumer confidence remains near historic lows (though it's improved in recent months). Unemployment is high — about 10 percent nationwide — and likely headed somewhat higher. Is this what we call the end of a recession?

Luckily for all of us trying to understand the economy, football is back — the good old CFL season. No, not U.S. college football, but our friends to the north in the Canadian Football League. The CFL's rules allow for multiple players in motion before the ball is snapped. This movement can be confusing, and the rule allows for players to build maximum momentum when the play begins.

Economically, we are at the beginning of a CFL play, and we have momentum in some areas that point to an end of the recession and recovery. Most telling is that there has been some growth in manufacturing activity, the most recent Beige Book showing a "generally stronger" increase in manufacturing orders. Manufacturing output increased 1.2 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, in August and September.

The average consumer saw a reduction in inventory, as store shelves became barer and barer over the last year. With the coming holiday season, low inventories are building somewhat — both because the cupboard was empty and in muted hopes for the holiday shopping season. As the recovery begins, the initial momentum in the economy is from replenishment of these drawn-down inventories and from slightly increasing but still weak demand.

From this point, it gets less clear. Returning to the football analogy, momentum often meets momentum. The economy is still weak, in need of more of the already-approved stimulus spending. We face headwinds of high unemployment; the end of beneficial governments programs, such as the home-buyer credit; longer-term threats, such as the devalued dollar; and the costs incurred to spend our way out of the recession: a tremendously increasing national debt.

It may be that the rules of our current economy are different in more ways than the conventional economic game we've seen for 30 years. We see two things that ultimately lead in the same direction — toward a slow, stretched-out recovery.

The government has only some influence over these headwinds. Unemployment will likely remain high into the middle of 2010 because companies will not begin hiring aggressively until after a sustained level of increased demand requires it.

And that increase in staffing may be slow to develop because of something we've seen in consumers. More and more, consumers are choosing to build personal savings and pay down existing debt. There is a bit of "chicken and egg" idea here, but basic economic changes do have a lasting effect on consumer behavior, and vice versa.

In prior recent recessions, consumer spending provided the greatest momentum emerging from downturns. But the consumer does not have this ability or willingness this time. The business sector and government spending must carry the greatest load.

The official recovery is likely under way, but the speed and steepness of the recovery are being dampened by consumer behavior. Today, consumers have a limited capacity and interest in spending outside of necessities, and they are paying down debt. This will likely make the current recovery seem less like the feverish pace of the CFL motion offense and more like the hard-fought advances of 1950s-style U.S. football — slow, methodical, with a reliance on "three yards and a cloud of dust."

Bob Allsbrook

Chief Economist

Regions Bank

5005 Woodway Suite: 120

Houston, Texas 77056